FXUS64 KHGX 071738
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND BY
EARLY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE BREAKS TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO LATE
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS TO MVFR MAY OCCUR LATE TUESDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
JUST GOING TO NUDGE POPS UP FURTHER INLAND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS (BASED ON LATEST RADAR LOOP) FOR THE UPDATE. REST OF FCST &
REASONING LOOKS FINE. 47
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009/
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT SHOULD
GO STATIONARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME SETX WILL HAVE
CLOUDS AND FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 8 AM BUT THIS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS BEFORE SLIGHTLY LOWER DP AIR WORKS
ITS WAY SOUTH. DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY. UPPER SPEED MAX OVER BAJA THIS
MORNING WILL CRUISE EAST AND SHOULD BRING INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT AS TROUGH OVER NRN CA SWINGS SE INTO 4 CORNERS
SLOWLY DRAGGING THE STATIONARY FRONT BACK NORTH INTO THE COASTAL
AREAS EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES NORTH AS TROUGH MOVES OUT
INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS OUT THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COOL OF DRY AIR WED AFTERNOON. CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW TO THE N
AND NE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 170-180KT JET FROM NWTX-AR WED-THU WILL
AID SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...PRODUCING DRY NEAR
SEASONAL WEATHER FOR SETX WED NIGHT-FRI MORNING. THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER COMES IN ON THE FAST SRN STREAM ACROSS THE DESERT SW
FRI/EARLY SAT...WITH ANOTHER WF FRI NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. AM
FAVORING THE ECMWF 00Z SOLUTION OVER THE GFS THU AND BEYOND...SO
WILL BE KEEPING THE POPS IN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRYING
OUT SAT AFTERNOON AFTER CF PASSAGE BUT WITH POPS INCREASING SUNDAY
AS WF MOVES BACK THROUGH THE REGION.
OTHER ISSUES...ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS POSSIBLE AGAIN THU-FRI WITH
THE MODERATE NE-SE WINDS...MAY ALSO HAVE A POSSIBLE SEA FOG
SCENARIO SETTING UP EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY SWELLS MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE TODAY BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. NORTHEAST
WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODERATE SEAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE S PLAINS. SCEC MAY BE NEEDED
FOR TUESDAY WITH WINDS/SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO COME
OFF THE COAST WED MORNING. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED WED NIGHT INTO THU
AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
A LONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL POSSIBLY MAINTAIN 20KT
WINDS SUSTAINED WITH SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET. 39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 51 67 49 60 / 40 50 30 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 55 71 54 62 / 60 60 50 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 62 71 61 65 / 60 60 50 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40
