FXUS63 KICT 060945
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRST WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE
REGION ON MON NIGHT-TUE.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS AT
THIS TIME WITH 290-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS 290-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE LOW
LAYERS AS THE MORNING HOURS CONTINUE...WITH SHORT TERM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING ENOUGH SATURATION FOR DRIZZLE FORMATION BY
SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SATURATION WILL CONTINUE TO
SATURATE THE LOW LAYERS...FIRST IN CENTRAL KS...CLOSEST TO THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THEN GRADUALLY FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL LEAD TO
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS
AS THE DAYTIME HOURS PROGRESS. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OOZING INTO
CENTRAL KS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL KS TODAY...SO ANY DRIZZLE THAT FALLS WILL FREEZE ON CONTACT
WITH THE GROUND. THIS COLD AIR WILL BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE TRAVEL HEADACHES WITH SLICK SPOTS ON
ELEVATED OR UNTREATED SURFACES. SO WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING FOR CENTRAL KS...BUT WILL EXTEND IT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
FURTHER SOUTH...SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE CRITICAL AS SURFACE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH FREEZING LINE...GENERALLY
JUST NW OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE...WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR SEEPING INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THINK PRECIP WILL START OUT IN SRN KS
AS DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.
SHORT RANGE MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE SLOWER WITH SATURATION...AND
THUS KEEP THE MIXED PRECIP AROUND A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WILL EXTEND ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING. THIS FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY PULL THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AS WELL...BRINGING THE PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END. ~KETCHAM
MON-TUE NIGHT:
THESE PERIODS WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
AS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IMPACTS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
BY 00Z TUE THE MAIN PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL STILL BE BACK OVER
CENTRAL CA AS RETURN FLOW STARTS TO GET CRANKED UP ACROSS THE
PLAINS. PRECIP WILL START MON NIGHT AS DEEP/PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT COMMENCES IN THE 285-295K LAYERS. BY 12Z TUE THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL BE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH THIS FEATURE
KICKING OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY AROUND 00Z WED. AT THIS POINT THE GFS
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER SWINGING IT ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF MODEL CONSENSUS THAT NORTH CENTRAL KS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WILL GET
THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW. WHILE THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AND NEVER CLOSES OFF...THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER CENTRAL
KS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW...STARTING MON
NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ENDING TUE EVENING AS THE DEFORMATION
ZONE SWINGS THROUGH. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE TUE AFTERNOON WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM SHOWING SOME CSI BANDING POTENTIAL.
AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE GOES CENTRAL KS SHOULD STAY IN ALL SNOW
THROUGHOUT WITH WICHITA IN THE CLASSIC TRANSITION ZONE. WOULD ALSO
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE DURING PART OF
THE DAY TUE WITH THE SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT ALONG THE KS-OK BORDER.
TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...STRONG NORTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. WITH ALL OF THIS FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO THROW A FEW COUNTIES IN A WINTER
STORM WATCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
WED-SAT:
BY 12Z WED THIS SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR BOTH WED AND THU. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT FOR FRI AND SAT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE TERMINAL CONTINUING TO DRAW THE MOST ATTENTION IS KRSL TOWARD
WHICH A SE-SAGGING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH. AT 9 PM CST
THE FRONT CURVED FROM ~KLNK SW TO ~KHLC TO JUST S OF KGLD. STILL
EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
THE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING IN A SW-NE MANNER FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
THROUGH CNTRL KS TO EXTREME NW MO AS THE "LEAD" MID-LVL SHORTWAVE
SHEARS WHILE SPRINTING NE ACROSS KS. AS SUCH NOW BELIEVE THAT MVFR
CIGS WILL NOT REACH KRSL TIL BETWEEN 06/12Z & 06/15Z WHEN MOIST
UPSLOPE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY. THE BEHAVIOR OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING THRU SUN AFTERNOON
AS IT'S SE PROGRESS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
MID-LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING E ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 36 20 32 25 / 40 40 10 40
HUTCHINSON 32 15 29 22 / 50 30 10 50
NEWTON 35 17 31 23 / 50 40 10 50
ELDORADO 37 18 33 25 / 40 50 10 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 39 20 35 28 / 30 50 10 40
RUSSELL 26 11 23 18 / 80 20 10 70
GREAT BEND 28 12 25 19 / 70 20 10 70
SALINA 30 16 25 19 / 70 30 10 60
MCPHERSON 32 16 28 21 / 60 30 10 60
COFFEYVILLE 42 24 38 28 / 30 40 0 30
CHANUTE 39 23 35 27 / 30 40 0 30
IOLA 38 23 34 27 / 30 50 0 30
PARSONS-KPPF 41 22 37 28 / 30 40 0 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>050.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>049.
&&
$$
