FXUS61 KBGM 111651
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1151 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU REGION TODAY AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE TUG HILL BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ONLY SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11:50 AM...IMPRESSIVE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IN THE STRONGEST PART OF THE BAND OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN TUG HILL REGION...35 TO 40 DBZ'S ARE SHOWING UP ON
THE KTXY RADAR. SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS AREA MAY BE EXCEEDING 4
INCHES PER HOUR! SO FAR THE MAIN PART OF THE BAND HAS BEEN JUST TO
OUR NORTH IN LEWIS/OSWEGO COUNTIES BUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IT
HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DOING A
VERY GOOD JOB WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAND BUT THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 HAS DONE THE BEST. BASED ON THIS...THE BAND WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH 21Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT DRIFT
SOUTH. HIGHEST IMPACT INITIALLY WILL REMAIN NEAR OUR BORDER WITH
LEWIS COUNTY IN PLACES SUCH AS BOONVILLE....WOODGATE...AVA AND
FLORENCE. WITH THE SLIGHT DRIFT SOUTHWARD...BY 21Z THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE BAND WILL BE ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN TO
STEUBEN. NORTH OF THIS LINE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INTENSE WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR COMMON...WITH UP TO 3 OR EVEN 4 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SQUALLS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATE...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO OVER 30 KTS AT
KRME...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE A MAJOR PROBLEM.
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND...WE ARE SEE SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SQUALLS WITH THIS
BAND WILL STAY WEST OF OUR CWA...BUT FLURRIES OR EVEN A BRIEF
SQUALL IS POSSIBLE FROM THE FINGER LAKES AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS...IT IS CHILLY AND VERY WINDY FOR
THE REST OF US!
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOW CONTS TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECT
NORTH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY BTWN 00Z-06Z TONIGHT 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE DRG THIS TIME. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS BAND WILL DROP AS LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING FLOW ARND TO
ABOUT 290. THIS WUD PUSH LK SNOWS TWD I-90 IN ONEIDA CNTY WHICH IS
NOT COVERED WITH ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. AS THIS WILL BE
MARGINAL ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA...WILL NOT RAISE ANY FLAGS FOR
SRN ONEIDA AT THIS TIME.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER OVRNGT UNDER EXTREME AMNTS OF LIFT AND
INSTABILITY...WITH LK INDUCED CAPE APPCHG 1000 J/KG TONIGHT.
STORM TOTAL ACCUMS OF 1-2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 18 SATURDAY...
WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 FEET NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY THE TIME THE
SNOW WINDS DOWN SAT AFTN. HIGHEST AMNTS WILL RANGE FM FLORENCE TO
POINT ROCK TO BOONVILLE.
INVERSION LOWERS BY SAT AFTN DCRSG CVRG AND INTENSITY OF PCPN. WINDS
WILL BACK ARND TO THE SW BY 20Z SHIFTING ANY LINGERING SNOW NORTH OF
CWA BY THIS TIME.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MV OUT OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SAT NGT AND SPREAD
PCPN INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFT 12Z SUNDAY AS WK SFC LOW RIDES UP
THE ERN SEABOARD AND POTENTIAL INVERTED TROF IMPACTS REGION. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH PCPN WHILE ECMWF/NAM LAGGING A TAD BHND. WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BTWN THE TWO AS NAM HAS BEEN A TAD TOO SLOW BRINGING PCPN
IN LATELY. HV KEPT CHC POPS IN FM 12-16Z THEN BUMPED TO LKLY RMNDR
OF THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A STRONG
SYSTEM ATTM...BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO MAKE THIS A MIXED PRECIP
TYPE OF RAIN AND SNOW ATTM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
TO BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN COLD ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY PRECIP ALL SNOW
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. IT ALSO LOOKS AS THOUGH THE UPPER LVL PATTERN
STALLS SOMEWHAT WITH A LARGE TROUGH HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN
US. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE FEATURES THAT
ROTATE AROUND THIS TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN CENTRAL NY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW. RIGHT
NOW IT ONLY LOOKS TO DROP TO MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY REAR
THEIR HEAD AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO
AROUND 25KTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS AT KSYR-KRME
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. VFR WITH SCT-BKN
CIGS AND A CHC OF MVFR CIGS KITH-KELM-KBGM-KAVP.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
