FXUS65 KFGZ 301026
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 AM MST MON NOV 39 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF. COOL EAST WINDS WILL 
BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLING AND MORE 
NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 

BY THE WEEKEND...EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL COOLING TREND...INCREASING 
WINDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENTS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN 
THE LCR IS MAKING FOR AN EXPANSIVE FIELD OF LOW-MID CLOUDS EARLY 
THIS MORNING. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS IS PRODUCING SOME 
LIGHT SNOW/DRIZZLE IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WESTERN RIM. THIS 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING...BEFORE DRYING FROM THE 
NORTH. ELSEWHERE...OUR SLOW-MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT PORTIONS 
OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. 
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY 
PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY. 

AFTER TODAY...THIS LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE STATE AND ARIZONA 
WILL RESIDE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A DRY RIDGE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL 
PERSIST IN THIS PATTERN...MAKING WARMING DIFFICULT. TO ADD TO 
THIS...A S/WV WILL MOVE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PUSHING NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER 
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN 
DEVELOPS AND MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING WHAT 
WILL HAPPEN. EITHER WAY...IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT MOISTURE 
WILL BREAK UNDER THE WEST COAST RIDGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND 
MAY INTERACT WITH NORTHERLY STREAM ENERGY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS 
COULD MAKE FOR A VERY WET START TO DECEMBER...BUT IT IS FAR TOO 
EARLY TO BE SURE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...TIL 00Z TUES. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT 
WILL KEEP UPSLOPE BKN-OVC STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 
MOGOLLON RIM...WITH WIDELY SCT -SHRA /-SHSN AND LCL MVFR CONDITIONS 
NEAR ANY PRECIP. DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WHITE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE  
SCT -SHSN AND AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 6000 FT. AFT 
00Z TUES...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AREAS 
NORTH OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KCEZ CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALL AREAS TIL 01Z TUES NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 
10-20KT...GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  

KGCN METAR OBS ARE UNAVAILABLE...SVC TECHS NOTIFIED.
KGCN TAF IS AMD NOT SKED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................PETERSON
AVIATION...............DL

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.