FXUS61 KILN 301044
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
544 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION...THE RAIN
WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO CLEAN UP A LITTLE OF THE LEFT OVER WEATHER. STILL SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE E...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE E
AND EXPECT THINGS TO BE DRY BY 15Z.

REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH BUILDS INTO THE TN VLY TNGT. S/W THAT WAS FCST TO DROP ACRS
NRN OH TNGT...ALL MODELS TAKE A LITTLE FARTHER N AND SO ANY PCPN
SHOULD STAY N.

CENTER OF HIGH WORKS TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUE. FA WILL BE ON
BACKSIDE OF HIGH.

DEEP CLOSED H5 LOW DIGS THRU TX INTO THE LOWER MS VLY TUE NGT.
MODELS DIVERGE ON TRACK AND SPEED OF SFC LOW THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE
LOWER MS VLY WED. GFS IS THE FASTEST AND FARTHEST NE PUSHING ITS LOW
INTO ERN KY BY 00Z THU. OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SLOWER AND
GENERALLY KEEP THE LOW BACK TOWARDS CNTRL KY/TN BORDER. WENT A
NAM/GEM HEMISPHERIC BLEND FOR WED. WAITED UNTIL THE AFTN TO BRING
IN THE BETTER POPS. WENT LIKELY EVERYWHERE.

LOW SLIDES E WED NGT. MODELS ARE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BACKED OFF ON THE SNOW SHOWERS A LITTLE.

MAV/MET WERE SIMILAR FOR TNGT THRU TUE NGT...SO WENT A BLEND.
LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET ON WED...SINCE THE GFS APPEARS TO
BRING IN THE PCPN TOO QUICKLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF TO SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LIKELY ACRS W CENTRAL OHIO
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MI. WL END ANY MENTION OF SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VLY.

SOLNS SHOW A LARGE DIVERGENCE NEXT WEEKEND WITH ECMWF MAINTAINING THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. WL 
FOLLOW SOLN CLOSER TO ECMWF WITH CONTD COLD TEMPERATURE BUT DRY 
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF ILN/S FA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS CROSSING CWA ATTM AND IS CURRENTLY JUST A FEW MILES
NW OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR BTWN CVG AND CMH METRO AREAS. CIGS AHEAD
OF IT ARE SHOWING A RISE ABOVE 2KFT THOUGH MOST OF THE POST
FRONTAL CIGS WILL DROP TO 12-1500' FOR 2-3 HOURS BEFORE RISING
BACK ABOVE 2KFT AND LINGERING THROUGH DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME DRIZZLE COMING FROM THE LOW CLOUDS BUT DO NOT THINK THAT IT
WILL SHOW ANY REDUCTION IN VSBYS AFTER THE IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL
ATMOSPHERE. NW WINDS 12-15KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES AND THEN SLOWLY BACK TO SW BY THE END OF THE FCST
PERIOD. LOW CIGS WILL LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK AND SCATTER OUT AROUND
4KFT THIS AFTERNOON. CENTRAL OHIO MAY GET SOME OF THIS BKN DECK
AROUND THE MVFR THRESHHOLD LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS