FXUS63 KSGF 081757
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS PACKAGE WAS THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE BRUNT OF
THIS STORM WILL MISS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE
SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO DEAL WITH. QUIETER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO END THE WORK WEEK.
A CLASSIC PANHANDLE HOOK TYPE SYSTEM IS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
CUTTING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL PRESSURE ADVECTION ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES INDICATE QUITE
A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. STRONGER
ECHOES ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE
PRESSURE ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. OBSERVATIONS AND CALLS TO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INDICATE SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS REACHING
THE GROUND...IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY
IN ARKANSAS HAS BEEN RAIN.
THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE OZARKS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN AREA OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
PROFILES WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT ALMOST ALL TYPES OF PRECIPITATION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW UP ACROSS THE
TRUMAN LAKE REGION...STRONG WARM ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL MAKE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPES WHERE CLOUD ICE CAN BE HAD. ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE PREVIOUS STATEMENT WILL BE SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT ALMOST ALL RAIN. THE BIGGER
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE OVERALL LACK OF CLOUD ICE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY
BE MORE DOMINANT HERE. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF
IMPACTS TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 THROUGH 15Z. THE GOOD
NEWS IS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE OZARKS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING
BY 15Z AS SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS REALLY START TO KICK IN.
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL TRACK ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40. THIS LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A
STRONG DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO THE REGION. AM NOT ALL
THAT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE BACKED OFF
POPS TO CHANCE AND LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WE MAY
ACTUALLY SEE MORE DRIZZLE THAN ANYTHING.
BY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THAT LOW PRESSURE
WILL SWING BY AND DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL DROP
LIKE A ROCK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WE MAY SEE SOME
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION CLIP THE REGION. AGAIN NOT SURE HOW MUCH
CLOUD ICE WILL BE PRESENT...BUT LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WOULD BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES. WE COULD SEE SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.
WEDNESDAY WILL JUST BE BRUTAL ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST. MEANWHILE...A MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM VERY LITTLE WITH HIGHS OVER MOST AREAS IN THE 20S. WIND
CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL DAY...WITH BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS EXPECTED AT TIMES. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FLATTENS. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WOULD BE LIMITED IN THIS
REGIME...SO HAVE INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
SCHAUMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. AHEAD OF THIS
LOW...GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR AND LIFR
CEILINGS TO THE AERODROMES WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS BRINGING
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT WILL EASE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
DEPARTING NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A DRY SLOT WORKING
INTO THE OZARKS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RAISE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING STRONG AND GUSTY.
ANGLE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
