FXUS63 KFGF 152119
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
319 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WIND CHILLS AND TEMPERATURES. WHEN 
LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM E SASK THROUGH E ND...E SD INTO E NE.  WHEN COMPARING 
THE MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE 
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. 
SO...ENDED UP USING A MODEL BLEND...LEANING TOWARD ADJMET FOR TEMPS 
AND THE GFS FOR POPS. 

CURRENT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH ARE STILL 
PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS IN THE AREA ALONG AND NW OF A 
VALLEY CITY TO GFK TO ROSEAU LINE. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO 
FALL UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE 
NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP 
WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 40 BELOW RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. 
THUS...WILL EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z WED. 

AS THE RIDGE MOVES E THIS EVENING...WAA AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
WILL BRING A CHC FOR -SN TO PRIMARILY THE N HALF OF THE 
AREA...STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LESS THEN ONE INCH OF 
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS WAVE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE THE WAA FOR THE REGION ON 
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NW 
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN FOR A 
WHILE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES...AND A CHC FOR 
-SN THROUGH THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM ALSO 
APPEARS LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH AT THIS TIME.  

ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THE LOW...PUSHING A 
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE N PLAINS ON FRI...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
-SN AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT 
THROUGHOUT THE LONGER TERM WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY FRI DIGS S...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA LATE FRI AND INTO SAT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE FA EARLY SUN. THE 12Z GFS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS BEGIN TO AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND PCPN CHANCES EXTENDING INTO EARLY MON.

TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY 
WED MORNING AS A LOWER CLOUD DECK MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001-004-005-
     007-008.

&&

$$
NG/HOMANN