FXUS64 KMAF 101046
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
446 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH CONFLUENT/ZONAL FLOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SOME INCREASED MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA MEXICO THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS COVERAGE NEAR THIS
AREA...BUT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THERE ARE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ONE IS ENTERING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST...WHILE THE OTHER APPROACHES THE NORTHERN BAJA FROM THE
WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN OK WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MODIFY AND SHIFT EAST TODAY AS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE INTO AZ AND NM
TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS A RESULT. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TODAY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID
IN THE WARMUP. BY SUNDAY THE 850 HPA TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS THE CWA AND...AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THERE ARE STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTIES FOR FROPA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE TWO. THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE A PAC FRONT PASSING OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONGER VORT MAX
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FEATURE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON ITS PROGRESSION. REGARDLESS...ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS BY MID
WEEK AND A COLDER FROPA WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE INITIAL PAC FRONT.
WE HAVE STAYED SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS
GIVEN THE RECENT WARM BIAS...BUT THIS TIME AROUND THE COLDEST
AIR SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 46 28 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 52 27 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 52 36 55 36 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 57 37 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 54 36 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 47 28 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 63 32 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 49 27 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 50 31 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 54 30 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/78
