FXUS63 KICT 080331
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
931 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009
.UPDATE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 285-300K LAYER HAS GENERATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES REMARKEDLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...AS STRONG DYNAMICS FROM LEFT EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS THE PERIOD WHEN
HEAVY SNOW IS MOST LIKELY AND WOULD PILE UP ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND TAPER
OFF...HOWEVER THE NORTH WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 6 INCHES STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A
GREAT BEND TO SALINA LINE...AND LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF THAT LINE
IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE WITH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 1-3 RANGE.
JAKUB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...WITH
SNOW DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS. IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
JAKUB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST HIGHLIGHT FOCUSES AROUND WINTER STORM TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUING
TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THIS WAVE IS FINALLY STARTING TO
EJECT EASTWARD AS THE BULK OF THE JET ENERGY IS NOW AT THE BASE OF
THE WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS WERE SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUING TO
HANG ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE. WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGIN TO TURN EAST THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT...WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOST
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...DUE TO COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE WHICH WILL FAVOR MORE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON...DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE MORE
SNOW DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THIS AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES...WE COULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER TO SLEET
WHICH COULD GREATLY AFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS. ALTHOUGH...IF THIS SYSTEM TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
THEN PROGGED...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY SEE SEE HEAVIER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...WE WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED OUR WINTER
STORM WARNING ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS MORE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT.
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THE OTHER HAND IS STILL VERY QUESTIONABLE ON THE
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT WILL GET WRAPPED UP IN THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE GREATEST. THEY MAY
ALSO SEE THIS MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
IN WAKE OF THIS STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ALL MODELS POINT
TOWARD STRONG/GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH DEVELOPING BY
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING...USHERING BITTER COLD AIR
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES (FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
ACCUMULATING SNOW)...ALONG WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS...POSSIBLY
FALLING AS COLD AS 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS. WIND CHILLS CLOSER TO THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR WILL DROP TO
NEAR 5 BELOW. EVEN THOUGH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL END TUESDAY
EVENING...CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THROUGH
6 AM WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BLOWING SNOW AND BITTER COLD
WIND CHILLS. DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
WARM ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SLACKENING WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO OVER MAINLY CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STAY
CLEAR OF THE AREA AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...GIVEN AMPLE SNOW
COVER...COULD BE LOOKING AT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS DROPPING
NEAR 10 BELOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
POTENTIALLY A SLOW WARM-UP THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...AS
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS PROGGED BY THE
GFS/ECMWF. HIGHS LOOK TO EVENTUALLY REBOUND INTO AT LEAST THE 30S BY
FRIDAY...AND MAYBE 40S BY SATURDAY.
REC/ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 22 35 14 20 / 100 80 70 0
HUTCHINSON 18 30 10 17 / 100 100 80 0
NEWTON 19 33 12 17 / 100 100 90 0
ELDORADO 22 36 14 19 / 90 90 80 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 25 38 17 24 / 90 80 40 0
RUSSELL 13 22 3 14 / 100 100 70 0
GREAT BEND 13 24 5 15 / 100 100 70 0
SALINA 15 27 8 14 / 100 100 100 0
MCPHERSON 17 29 10 16 / 100 100 90 0
COFFEYVILLE 26 41 21 27 / 50 80 60 0
CHANUTE 25 40 18 23 / 50 80 70 0
IOLA 25 38 18 21 / 50 90 80 0
PARSONS-KPPF 24 41 20 25 / 50 80 60 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ068>071-
082-083-091>094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067-068.
&&
$$
