FXUS64 KSHV 242115
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SURGING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
PEAK WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 30KTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL HOLD ABOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO 4 AM CHRISTMAS MORNING.
SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SNOW IS
CURRENTLY FALLING IN DFW AND WACO. CONSIDERING THESE TRENDS...BY
6 PM...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF EXCLUSIVE SNOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION. I-20 SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY FLURRIES WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE ON THESE AMOUNTS. THEREFORE A WINTER
STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH NO
CHANGES. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY SUPPORTING LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
STILL MONITORING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REGARDING A SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING
FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
/05/
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENT RADAR INDICATING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR CONTINUED TO FEED INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION AROUND A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS BETWEEN
TYLER AND TERRELL. COLD AIR ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS PROVIDING A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW NEAR TERRELL. AN AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS WAS
WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF A PARIS TO TYLER AND PALESTINE TEXAS LINE.
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EVENING WILL LOWER AS THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION AND CHANGES OVER TO SNOW.
HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR
WITH LIGHT DUSTING TO UP TO NEAR ONE INCH BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 20
AND INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR. OVERNIGHT THE UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING. WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE
CHANGING FROM WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES MAKING FOR A BUMPY RIDE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING ON CHRISTMAS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AS WELL. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 30 46 27 52 29 / 30 10 10 10 10
MLU 32 46 26 52 30 / 20 10 10 10 10
DEQ 25 40 23 46 25 / 70 10 10 10 10
TXK 28 42 28 49 30 / 40 10 10 10 10
ELD 30 45 25 52 28 / 40 10 10 10 10
TYR 26 44 27 50 29 / 30 10 10 10 10
GGG 27 45 26 51 27 / 30 10 10 10 10
LFK 28 49 26 54 29 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ060-061-070-071.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ097-108>112-124>126-136-137.
&&
$$
05/06
