FXUS65 KFGZ 091641
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST WED DEC 09 2009

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS WITH COLD NIGHTS THROUGH 
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A SERIES OF 
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THESE STORMS
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW EACH DAY...WITH THE 
BEST CHANCE DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM 
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE 
HIGH COUNTRY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY COLD MORNING INVERSIONS OVER THE SNOW-COVERED 
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO BREAK...BUT MOST AREAS 
SHOULD MIX OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE 
REPLACED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AS PACIFIC 
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN 
THE MID-LEVELS. JUST ENOUGH SATURATION MAY OCCUR FOR A STRAY SNOW 
SHOWER OR TWO ABOVE 6000 FEET...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT 
LIKELY. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER FRIDAY...HOWEVER...NOT AS MUCH 
IS EXPECTED AS PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED...DUE TO A DEEPENING SYSTEM 
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. 

THIS FINAL SYSTEM IN OUR PACIFIC STREAM IS DUE LATE SATURDAY 
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS COULD BE 
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. 
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES AOA 15 KFT MSL. TIL 02Z THU...SFC 
WINDS WEST SOUTHWEST 15-25 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR 
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC......................PETERSON
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER.......DL

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.