FXUS65 KFGZ 040426
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 PM MST THU DEC 03 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS...ALONG WITH BRISK NORTHEAST 
WINDS...WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE 
WEEKEND...A DEVELOPING STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING 
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS TO THE REGION...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN 
AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS A MAJOR STORM 
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AND COLD AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE 
NORTHLAND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIM. 
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS WILL KEEP A FEW LOCATIONS WARMER THAN WOULD 
NORMALLY BE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL SOME OF THE 
COLDEST READINGS SO FAR THIS EARLY WINTER. GRIDS HAVE THIS TREND
IN HAND...NO UPDATES NEEDED TONIGHT.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW HANGS ON AT 
LEAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL SE SOME MODERATION AS 
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT DUE NEXT WEEK.

00Z GFS RUNS STILL ARE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS...WE WILL SEE 
WHAT THE EUROPEAN BRINGS LATER THIS EVENING. GFS ADVERTISING A MAJOR 
WINTER STORM WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 
EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW A WETTER/WARMER PATTERN. STILL NO ANSWERS AS OF 
YET...HOPEFULLY...WE WILL SEE SOME CLARITY SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&
$$

PUBLIC..................PETERSON
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.