FXAK69 PAFG 282328
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 3/TUE. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND DEEPENS OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MON THROUGH TUE. STRONG RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA BUILDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW ON MON. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN CANADA ON
TUE WITH STRONG GRADIENT OVER ALASKA RANGE AND EAST HALF OF
INTERIOR. 

SURFACE: A 960 MB LOW 360 NM WEST OF ADAK SAT EVENING WILL MOVE
EAST. AT 3 PM AKST SUN...THE LOW WILL BE 956 MB 190 NM NORTHWEST
OF ADAK. AT 3 PM MON...THE LOW WILL BE 961 MB 300 NM NORTHEAST OF
ADAK. A 994 MB LOW 130 NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW SAT EVENING WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN. AT 3 PM AKST SUN...THE LOW WILL BE 999 MB
300 NM NORTH OF BARROW. AT 3 PM AKST MON...THE LOW WILL BE 1002 MB
400 NM NORTH OF BARROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER SIBERIA. A
971 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SAT EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA SUN AND WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORY
SUN NIGHT.

NORTH SLOPE: SNOW SHOWERS FROM BARROW WEST WILL END SUN EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS. EAST WINDS WILL PICK UP MON
NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS LOWS MOVES TO OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA ON TUE WILL BRING SNOW
MAINLY TO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.

WEST COAST: WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND TONIGHT AND SUN...THEN EAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND SUN
NIGHT AND MON. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MON. SNOW AND WIND WILL REACH THE REST OF THE
WEST COAST MON NIGHT TO TUE. TEMPERATURES WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE
TOO COLD FOR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. 

INTERIOR: LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR WILL END SUN NIGHT AS LOW OVER GULF MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SUN WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMING ON
MON AS STRONG CHINOOK DEVELOPS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY WIND
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALASKA RANGE PASSES FOR MON THROUGH
TUE. THE SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

MID RANGE: THE 12Z EUROPEAN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH MORE BELIEVABLE
FORECAST THAN WHAT THE 00Z VERSION LOOKED LIKE. IT IS MORE
AGREEABLE WITH THE OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

KA/DA NOV 09