FXUS63 KTOP 291210
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12 UTC AVIATION.
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.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
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.AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE TAFS SITES
THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC DOWN-GLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CAUSE SKIES TO CLEAR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 11 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KTS AFTER SUNSET.
GARGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN BAJA WHILE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN THE TROUGH SHEARS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXITING FAR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST CWA WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING OFF IN ITS
WAKE. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST...00Z SOUNDINGS
..SFC OBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY MID LEVELS PERSISTING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TIME OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THEREFORE
FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA TODAY IS
LOW AND HAVE LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...STILL
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE COULD STILL OCCUR EARLY
TODAY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA WITHIN STRATUS DECK NOW
DEVELOPING...BUT CHANCES OF THIS LOOK REMOTE AS WELL AND IT WOULD BE
A TRACE EVENT AT BEST. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FCST.
WITH THE STRONG CAA NORTHWEST CWA AND THICKER CLOUDS SOUTHEAST
CWA...WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE CWA.
DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
SURFACE WINDS COME AROUND TO A MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH THE 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT DRY WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
AREA REMAINS IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO
AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS BEYOND TUESDAY.
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.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
