FXUS64 KBRO 300236
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
836 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KDRT
TO KAUS AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE LOWER RGV. SO FAR
MOST OF THE STRONGER CONV REMAINS CONCENTRATED OVER EAST
TX/ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA AREAS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY REMAINS NIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX. THE 00Z
BRO SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS PRETTY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH A CAPE OF ONLY 401 J/KG AND AN LI OF
-3.6. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER RGV EARLY TOMORROW WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TRW ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW.
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF ISOLD T-STORMS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST WORDING. OTHERWISE GOOD CAA WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS ACROSS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER RGV. THIS WORDING IS REFLECTED
PRETTY WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WORDING. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. 
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.  THERE IS A 
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS 
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. 
THESE CONDITIONS MAY REDUCE CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR 
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. 
&&

.MARINE...AT 7 PM BUOY 20 REPORTED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS 
WITH GUSTS TO 14 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 6.9 FEET WITH A 8 SECOND PERIOD.  
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL 
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE MARINE AREAS ON MONDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. 
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREAS AT TIMES ON MONDAY. THE WINDS 
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE ON MONDAY AND 
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH 
TUESDAY. 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  66  66  52  57 /  40  80  70  70 
BROWNSVILLE          65  67  49  57 /  40  80  70  70 
HARLINGEN            63  65  50  58 /  50  80  70  70 
MCALLEN              63  65  49  54 /  50  80  70  70 
RIO GRANDE CITY      57  59  44  54 /  60  80  70  70 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   63  66  54  61 /  40  80  70  70 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...65