FXUS62 KCAE 060531
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1231 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE JUST ABOUT CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING IN THE COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
APPROACHING FORECAST LOWS IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AS LANCASTER IS
ALREADY AT 32 AND CHARLOTTE AT 35. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
OVERHEAD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE LOWER
30S AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND COULD HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDDED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AND MIN TEMPERATURES
AND UPDATE WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SUN/SUN NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. S/W ENERGY MOVG ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EWD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH BOTH MAV/NAM SHOWS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS. AT THE SURFACE...SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
WEAK BY ALL MODELS WITH ONLY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACRS THE AREA. ONLY ISSUE WITH SYSTEM WILL BE AMOUNT OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. WILL STAY ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND WARMER SIDE FOR LOWS
WITH EXPECTED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE...SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
APPROACHING SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/CNTRL PLAINS. GFS
SHOWS GOOD INSENTROPIC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED MORNING. BOTH MAV/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR TUE...BUT MAV APPEARS FASTER IN HANDLING IN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVG INTO THE REGION BY THU/FRI THEN NEXT SYSTEM FOR SAT.
WILL KEEP CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...THEN DRY FOR
THU AND FRI. WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SAT AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
COUNTRY AND FLOW BASICALLY FROM THE W/SW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
NEAR/LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WET SOIL FROM RECENT RAINS MAY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...AND SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL STAY UP SOME...AND THIN
HIGH LEVEL IS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. ALL IN ALL...NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FOG...BUT WILL THROW IN SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
FOG PRONE AGS/OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
