FXUS64 KBMX 252329
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S/40S AREA WIDE. A RE-ENFORCING SHOT
OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. THE DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.

HIGHS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM GATHERS STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. GFS
MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST INCONSISTENT MODEL WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO
RUN DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE
SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND RAIN CHANCES RAISED TO LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES INTO
AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUSPECT AS MODELS ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE EXTENT OF PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROFS. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE NOW
DEPICTING A WEAKER SYSTEM AFFECTING ALABAMA MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES.

THE OVERALL TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET AND COOL MONDAY THRU 
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE 
WEEK.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY 
MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH BETWEEN 15 AND 
18Z. ONLY IMPACTS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 
SUSTAINED OF 12 TO 15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS 
AROUND AS WELL...BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS. 

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$