FXUS64 KLZK 232327
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
527 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AR...WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WITHIN THE HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AND STORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. BREEZY SE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO HRO NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THIS FRONT...SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KTS...WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE REST OF THE SITES WILL SEE THE FRONT
PUSH THROUGH AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT/THURSDAY...AND THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. TWO TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY OVER
FOUR INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
A SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERE WEATHER MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT TORNADOES WILL BE MORE
LIKELY ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 15 TO 25 MPH...AND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THIS WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD DOWN SOME TREES AND POWER
LINES. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR NOW...BUT IS STRONGLY WORDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...WITH 1 TO
2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NORTH/WEST OF MOUNT IDA...RUSSELLVILLE AND
MOUNTAIN HOME. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION ENDING. HOWEVER...
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS/SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
CLOSE TO THE MISSOURI BORDER. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
THE PERIOD WILL END WILL DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...SANDWICHED BY RIDGES
OVER BOTH COASTS. MODELS ALL AGREE THAT BLOCKY TYPE PATTERN WILL
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL
FOLLOW THE ECWMF GUIDANCE PRETTY CLOSELY AS IT CONTINUES TO OUT
PERFORM ITS GFS COUNTERPART.
PERIOD INITIATES WITH LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE UPPER MID WEST
WHICH EFFECTIVELY KEEPS THE GULF CLOSED FOR BUSINESS. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL KEEP PERIODS OF
CLOUDS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE DOES FINALLY RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. LOW PRESSURE GENERATES ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS LARGE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL IN QUESTION AS COLDER AIR WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE ESTABLISHED AND A WINTERY MIX CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL. WILL TAKE A WAIT AND
SEE APPROACH SINCE WE ARE TALKING ABOUT DAY SEVEN AND BEYOND BUT
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND ARE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 53 53 30 38 / 100 100 20 10
CAMDEN AR 55 56 31 45 / 100 100 20 10
HARRISON AR 51 52 23 32 / 100 100 60 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 53 55 30 40 / 100 100 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 55 55 31 41 / 100 100 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 56 56 33 45 / 100 100 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 52 54 28 39 / 100 90 30 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 51 27 35 / 100 100 50 20
NEWPORT AR 53 55 32 39 / 100 100 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 56 56 32 43 / 100 100 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 52 54 27 37 / 100 90 30 10
SEARCY AR 54 55 31 40 / 100 100 20 10
STUTTGART AR 55 56 33 42 / 100 100 20 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
