FXUS64 KTSA 241726
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
POWERFUL WINTER STORM UNFOLDING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER 35 MPH WILL BRING VSBY 1/4SM OR LOWER AT TIMES AT KTUL/KRVS.
AT THIS TIME NO FZRA MENTIONED IN TAFS...HOWEVER THIS SITUATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SOME DATA SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF
FREEZING PRECIP IN THE 21-00Z TIMEFRAME IN NW ARKANSAS. MOST SITES
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST MVFR BY 18Z FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAJOR WINTER STORM IS GETTING UNDERWAY WITH PRECIP CHANGING OVER
TO SLEET IN MANY AREAS TO THE WEST OF TULSA. REMAINDER OF AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS EFFECTIVE CENTER OF A
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR DFW...A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
12Z MODELS INITIALIZED. MODEL FORECAST TRACKS HOWEVER DO LOOK
REASONABLE AND FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
UPGRADED TO BLIZZARD WARNING FOR OSAGE...PAWNEE AND CREEK WHERE
WINDS ALREADY GUSTING OVER 45 MPH...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED LATER. SNOWFALL TOTAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN
UPDATED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED IN NW OSAGE/PAWNEE AND AN
AREA FROM SOUTH OF TULSA METRO INTO FAR NW ARKANSAS.
SOME CONCERN ABOUT WARMER MID LEVEL AIR BECOMING WRAPPED INTO THE
CIRCULATION IN AREAS FROM ABOUT TUL-FSM NORTH WHICH COULD RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF FZRA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES
CLOSER TO COOL THE ENTIRE COLUMN FOR ALL SNOW. AT THIS TIME
DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS NOT ANTICIPATED.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS STORM WILL BE TALKED ABOUT FOR A LONG TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 38 19 31 18 / 100 80 10 10
FSM 54 26 32 19 / 100 90 0 10
MLC 42 19 34 20 / 100 80 0 10
BVO 37 20 29 18 / 100 80 10 10
FYV 51 21 26 17 / 100 90 10 10
BYV 51 20 24 16 / 100 90 10 10
MKO 40 18 28 21 / 100 80 0 10
MIO 39 19 26 17 / 100 80 10 10
F10 38 18 31 21 / 100 80 0 10
HHW 55 21 34 21 / 100 80 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ059-OKZ064.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ055-
OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-
OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14
