FXUS65 KLKN 272228
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
228 PM PST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEVADA TONIGHT...BRINGING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND...A START
WARMING BACK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MAKING ITS WAY THRU EASTERN HUMBOLDT AND WESTERN ELKO COUNTIES
WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT QPF
WILL BE IN HUMBOLDT...WESTERN ELKO...AND NORTHERN LANDER
COUNTIES...AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT TONIGHT. RAWS SITES ARE INDICATING THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO
ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY...WHERE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. A DUSTING
IN HUMBOLDT'S VALLEYS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL
PROBABLY END BEFORE REACHING THE ELKO AREA...ALTHO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA...SHIFTING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA ON
SATURDAY. ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOWS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT IN AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF HUMBOLDT AND
NORTHWEST ELKO COUNTIES. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE COOL OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT CAA IS LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP
MIN'S UP TONIGHT...BUT SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. REA

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FCST DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE BASED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL AS THE GFS IS
AN OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING
INTO THE PAC NW DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK SHOWING A
FRAILLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE BUSTING THROUGH WEST COAST RIDGE INTO
THE PAC NW AND NRN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOT
EVEN SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS SHORT WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND MUCH WEAKER AS IT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY THAT DROPS OUT OF THE NORTH AND BRUSHES NERN NV. MOST
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST BUT IF THE WAVE IS
A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WE COULD GET SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NERN NV.

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW DROPPING SWD THROUGH CA WILL BRING A FEW 
SHOWERS TO WRN NV TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR 
CONDITIONS BUT COULD SEE SOME LCL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS ACROSS 
WRN NV. 
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$

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