FXUS61 KOKX 011526
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1026 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND THEN EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM
CROSSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS NECESSARY. SHORTWAVE SHEARS THROUGH NORTH
OF THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION. SCT-BKN STRATO-CU WITH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE...BUT SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW.
SCATTERED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC
METRO THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WSW FLOW TODAY. HIGH
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...NEAR SEASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S AND THEN SE OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
30S...20S PINE BARRENS/INTERIOR VALLEYS...AROUND 40 NYC. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN FAR OUTLYING AREAS.
FOR THE MOST PART MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BAJA LOW EJECTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...RACING TOWARDS THE NE WED NIGHT
AROUND A LARGE DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHING
INTO WESTERN NY BY THURS MORN. GFS IS STRONGEST AND FURTHER SE
OUTLIER WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
AS A RESULT...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
RACE NE...UP THE W SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WED NIGHT...INTO
WESTERN NY BY THURS MORNING. GFS IS STRONGEST AND FURTHEST SE
OUTLIER.
HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO FURTHER WEST AND WEAKER MODEL
CONSENSUS...BETTER CONSISTENCY.
INCREASING CLOUDS WED...LOWERING/THICKENING WED AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN LIKELY DEVELOPING
FROM SW TO NE LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING...THEN MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND RISING TEMPS LIKELY WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING
AS A 70-80 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS GULF/ATLANTIC
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT.
DEFINED THETA-E RIDGING WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER.
WITH A 70+ LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 HPA...WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 50S...AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INLAND LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS (25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH)
ACROSS NYC... COASTAL SECTIONS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING.
EXACT TIMING OF FRONT STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE...BUT PRECIP
SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF THURS MORN IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT AS
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW RACE NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC/NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT APPEARS CURRENTLY...BREEZY WESTERLY
FLOW...PARTIAL CLEARING IN WAKE OF LOW...AND SLOW CAA...WILL MAKE
FOR A MILD AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE
60S...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER
MODEL DIFFERENCES POP UP DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. MODELS DO SHOW FALLING HEIGHTS
AND COOLING OF TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION AT
THE SURFACE WILL PROBABLY BE TEMPERED TO A DEGREE BY A DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS THEREFORE ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. H5 TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH THE TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE
DIFFERING AMONG THE MODELS. BEST GUESS WOULD BE FOR IT TO PASS
THROUGH LATE DAY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. MED RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
PASSING EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SATURDAY...AND TREND MORE TOWARDS SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS RANGING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY.
RIDGING THEN RETURNS AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A DRY
FORECAST AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.
WSW WINDS AROUND 10 KT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE...BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST AROUND MIDDAY
(10-15G18-23KT).
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO DIRECTION. LOWER SPEEDS SHOULD BE
240-260. HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE 280-300 DEG. WINDS SHOULD STAY LEFT OF
310 OVERALL. ALSO...MIGHT NEED TO DELAY ONSET OF GUSTS BY AN HOUR OR
SO...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DO SO AT THIS TIME.
SCT040 IN TAFS MAY ACTUALLY BE BKN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT
KSWF WHERE BKN CEILING SHOULD BE PREVAILING).
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR LOW END VFR CEILING AND WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
01/13Z 24007KT
01/14Z 26008KT
01/15Z 26009KT
01/16Z 26011G18KT
01/17Z 26012G19KT
01/18Z 27013G22KT
01/19Z 28013G23KT
01/20Z 27013G22KT
01/21Z 26012G19KT
01/22Z 25011G18KT
01/23Z 26009KT
KJFK...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR LOW END VFR CEILING AND WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR LOW END VFR CEILING AND WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
KTEB...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR LOW END VFR CEILING AND WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR LOW END VFR CEILING AND WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
KSWF...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR LOW END VFR CEILING AND WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
KBDR...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR LOW END VFR CEILING AND WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
KGON...AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR LOW END VFR CEILING AND WIND
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED...VFR
WED NIGHT-THU...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH IFR PROBABLE. LLWS POSSIBLE.
TSTMS PSBL.
THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
SAT...VFR LIKELY WITH SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT THIS TIME BUT WITH
BUOY 44097 REPORTING 5 FT SEAS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 5 FT SEAS ARE
BEING REALIZED ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS AT THIS
TIME. IN ANY CASE...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RIGHT AROUND SCA LEVELS INTO THIS EVE. WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS
THEY ARE.
CONDITIONS THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL WED NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. GALES ARE
A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY INTO THU...BUT STILL TO EARLY FOR A GALE
WATCH. DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY PUT THE WATCH UP THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW INVERTED WE ARE. WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE GALES AND ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS IN THE HWO.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU NIGHT...WITH ALL BUT THE
OCEAN WATERS FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO SUBSIDE...THEREFORE SCA MAY BE NEEDED INTO FRI. A COASTAL STORM
PASSING TO THE EAST MAY CAUSE FLAGS TO RETURN ON SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WED NIGHT INTO
THU.
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER ANOTHER COASTAL LOW COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT QPF THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE APPROACH OF A FULL MOON WILL KEEP ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HIGH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO THE WEST COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THU
MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE...BUT DUE TO THE FAIRLY QUICK PROGRESSION OF THE
STORM...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND DECREASE SOME BY THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5 FT ARE NEEDED TO REACH MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS IN THE MORNING...2-2.5 FT IN THE EVENING.
MODERATE FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS
EVENT...BUT WILL STILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MORE VULNERABLE SOUTH
SHORE BACK BAY LOCATIONS OF NASSAU COUNTY.
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST
WITH THE SYSTEM...HENCE STRONGER WINDS AND LARGER DEPARTURES IN THE
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE MORE OF AN NAM/EC/SREF ROUTE SO NOT
TAKING THE GUIDANCE VERBATIM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PFM
MARINE...AL/JC
HYDROLOGY...NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AL
