FXUS62 KMFL 290811
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
311 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC/SE U.S. WL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER FAIRLY DRY WX CONDITIONS AND SO WL KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TUE AND TUE NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE
EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE EAST ADVECTING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT THEN WL ONLY
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE. EXPECT MINIMAL CHANGES IN TEMPS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN BEING ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MOST
ACTIVE PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. A CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
DESERT SW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TO WEST TX BY TUESDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN GULF. BY
WEDNESDAY THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AS THE POLAR
JET DIVES SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE CUT-OFF LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN BE ABSORBED BY THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD BY THURSDAY. WHILE THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NE WELL NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOUTH FLORIDA
COULD EXPERIENCE FAIRLY ACTIVE WX AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
GFS SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD UPPER LVL DIV AND A 40-50 KTS LOW LEVEL JET
JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY 00Z THU WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
MOVING TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA (LAKE OKEE/PALM BEACH
COUNTY) BY 06Z. THIS CERTAINLY COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS
AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE FACT
THAT IS A NIGHTTIME EVENT AND THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUSTAIN STRONG STORMS. IN ANY CASE...WL INCREASE POPS
ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT TO LIKELY AND MENTION A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH
POPS DECREASING AND WEATHER IMPROVING LATE THURSDAY. WL NOT
MENTION STRONG TSTMS IN THE FORECAST YET AS THIS IS STILL A GOOD
90+ HOURS IN THE FUTURE, BUT WL PUT MORE EMPHASIS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS TO SEE IF THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. WL
EXPECT ISOLD SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EAST SECTIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
FAIRLY QUICKLY TO NE PUSHING PATCHES OF MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

.MARINE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUE
NIGHT WITH WINDS AOB 15 KTS AND SEAS AOB 4 FEET. SFC WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WITH HAZARDOUS AND ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS
LIKELY AFFECTING ALL WATERS FROM THEN ON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS IN SIGHT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE 35% THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  60  80  61 / -  -  10 10 
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  64  81  65 / -  -  10 10 
MIAMI            79  63  82  63 / -  -  10 10 
NAPLES           79  58  81  61 / -  -  10 10 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION...54/BNB