FXUS61 KOKX 291430
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
930 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION...
PLACING THE AREA IN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. BASED ON THIS
MORNINGS LOCAL SOUNDING WITH FULL SUN...FORECAST MAX TEMPS APPEAR
ON TARGET...MAINLY 50-55. ENJOY YET ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR
NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO HUGE MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED...WITH NAM A SLIGHT OUTLIER WITH
HANDLING OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...AND THIS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA RETROGRADES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS EXPECTED IN SW FLOW. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH AND WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL IN SW WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO APPROACH NORTHWEST ZONES LATE TONIGHT...AND SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY. CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED
AS MOST IF NOT ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS OUTPUT SOME QPF...ALBEIT LIGHT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES. TEMPS SHOULD COOL AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...BUT TEMPS STILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER...BUT REMAIN MIXED. AS SUCH...LARGE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE DISPARITY FROM NYC METRO (HEAT ISLAND) AND
SURROUNDING SUBURBS NOT EXPECTED. EXPECT ANY LAKE INDUCED PRECIP TO
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE COOLER WITH H8 TEMPS -6C. SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SWEEP IN AS TROUGH KICKS OUT TO THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA...PROBABLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. FEEL WEDNESDAY REMAINS DRY AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. THEN...SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WEAKENS AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A TRACK JUST INLAND OR RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...JUST
ABOUT OVER THE AREA. GFS FASTER WITH LOW MOVEMENT COMPARED TO
EC/GGEM. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
LIQUID TO OCCUR WITH THIS EVENT. IF THIS LOW PASSES FURTHER
EAST...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE THURSDAY ON THE BACK END OF THIS
SYSTEM.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO THE SW AN HOUR EARLIER OR AN
HOUR LATER THAN WHAT IS IN THE 12Z TAFS. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH 00Z. HIGHEST SPEEDS AT NYC
TERMS WILL BE BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP BELOW
10 KT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVE...THEN INCREASE TO 10-12KT BETWEEN
04Z AND 06Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MON...MAINLY VFR...PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN RAIN WITH COLD FROPA
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
MON NIGHT-WED...VFR.
WED NIGHT-THU...SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY COVERING MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVE WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ON OCEAN WATERS. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS ON
EASTERN LI SOUND AND THE EASTERN BAYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTN WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS UP
AND THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME...JUST DIDN'T HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THEY WOULD REACH AT THIS POINT.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE
SOUTH. FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ON THE OCEAN AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH CLOSE TO A 1/4
INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC/PW
AVIATION...AL
MARINE...GC
HYDROLOGY...PW
