FXUS64 KMOB 011104
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA WITH THE WESTERN END STALLED. THIS WILL BE DRIFTING
BACK NORTH TODAY WITH AN INITIAL ISENTROPIC PROCESS GENERATING SOME
LIGHT RAIN STARTING POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
CONCEDE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY FALL BEFORE THEN. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND PROVIDE SOME OF THE INGREDIENTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORM EVENT. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO COMMENCE OVER SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS CALLING FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES...POSSIBLY MORE ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES. A 50 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH
SHEAR TO OVERCOME A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY FOR SOME ROTATING
STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS MOST ANYWHERE
SINCE THE LOW TRACK IS STILL IN QUESTION. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT AS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. EXPECT GULF WATER TO RUN UP AND
AFFECT THE USUAL PLACES...SEE BHMCFWMOB FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT...SEE BHMFFAMOB
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY OCCUR CLOSE
TO 6 PM AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG ABOUT THAT TIME...THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WOULD OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING.
/11
.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. FORECASTERS
EXPECT TO CONTINUE DEALING WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IN THE
MORNING...WITH ITS AXIS PROGRESSING EASTWARD. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
ABUNDANT RAINS...THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE STRENGTH AND STRONG VEERING PROFILE OF THE LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE...THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION AND THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES. FORECASTERS EXPECT BETTER POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
TO FORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND
MAKE POSSIBLE IMPACTS OVER THE GULF COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST AL
SOUTHEAST IF I-65 WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LATEST NATIONAL CENTERS FAVOR THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/GEFS MEAN BLEND FOR
THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUS...AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/TSTMS
LOOKS TO BE MOVING WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE EVENING. SOME
WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN MAY IMPACT OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES LATE IN THE WEEK
AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIER PATTERN AND A COOL DOWN IN
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SOME INTEREST BY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THERE. THIS OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF
SHOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...A DEEP MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES <540. THERE MAY BE BRIEF WINDOW
FOR OCCURRENCE OF A BRIEF FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVENT IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME MORE CONTINUITY ON THIS
BEFORE GETTING TOO GUNG HO IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYES
ON.
A CHILLY WEEKEND ON TAP...WITH HIGHS AND LOWS MOVING TO WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO AROUND FREEZING MOST
AREAS BY SUNDAY AM...EXCEPT FOR IMMEDIATE COAST. /10
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 01/12Z...MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL AND SOME MID CLOUDS TO
START OUT THE DAY WITH CEILING LOWERING BY MID AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
BEFORE SUNSET...MORE SO OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST...PICKING UP SPEED AS THE DAY GOES
ON. SOME MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MOSTLY
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD START OUT CLOUDY AND RAINY WITH IFR CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE EASTERN SECTIONS BEING THE
LATEST TO IMPROVE. /11
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND A GALE WARNING FOR
LATE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST THEN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
WILL LIKELY HAVE GUSTS TO ABOVE GALE FORCE IF NOT SUSTAINED AT GALE
FORCE FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS COME UP OVER THE BAYS A BIT
LATER...HENCE THE GALE WARNING TAKES EFFECT A BIT LATER...SEE
BHMMWWMOB AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR DETAILS. WAVES WILL
INCREASE AS THE WINDS INCREASE AND THE OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD TO 12 TO 17 FEET TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...BUT REMAINING ABOVE 7 FEET
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF LATER THIS WEEK AND BRING AN INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND TO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. /11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOVING INTO A WET PERIOD IN THE NEAR TERM. NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 59 53 67 42 / 60 100 70 10
PENSACOLA 61 58 69 47 / 60 100 80 10
DESTIN 62 61 70 49 / 60 100 100 10
EVERGREEN 59 54 67 42 / 50 100 80 10
WAYNESBORO 56 49 60 40 / 50 100 60 20
CAMDEN 58 52 63 42 / 50 100 80 10
CRESTVIEW 60 57 71 44 / 60 100 100 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER
BALDWIN...AND UPPER MOBILE.
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
AND COASTAL SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND MOBILE BAY.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
&&
$$
