FXUS63 KICT 290915
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG SE-MOVING COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING SE KS AS
ADVERTISED. IN THE FRONT'S WAKE TEMPS HAD FALLEN TOWARD THE MID 30S OVER
THE NW CORRIDOR OF KICT COUNTRY ON THE STRENGTH OF NW 15-20 MPH WINDS.
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY & TONIGHT:
WITH STIFF NLY WINDS ~20 MPH & MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIMITED TEMP RECOVERY
WILL OCCUR AS MAXES STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPR 40S. ANY CHANCES FOR -RA
TO BE CONFINED TO SE KS THIS MORNING WHERE NO DOUBT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO SFC-850MB MOISTURE AXIS THAT'LL CLIP THE SUB-DIVISION. WITH ONSET OF
STRONG(!) ISENTROPIC DESCENT IN 285-295K LAYER ANY -RA THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD VACATE THE PREMISES BY MID-MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS SFC HIGH SETTLES ALMOST DUE S ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SUCH
BEHAVIOR WOULD INDUCE LWR-DECK FLOW TO BACK TO A WEAK WLY COMPONENT BUT
WITH CLEAR SKIES MINS 25-30F ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR ALL AREAS.
MON-TUE NGT:
A STRENGTHENING MID-UPR SHORTWAVE IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SURGE SE ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS WHILE A MID-LVL CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS E OVER TX. THE FORMER
FEATURE WILL SEND A PRE-COLD FRONTAL SFC TROF SE TOWARD KS FROM THE NWRN
PLAINS WHICH'LL INDUCE LWR-DECK FLOW TO FAVOR A SW/WLY COMPONENT. SUCH A
SETUP WOULD PROMOTE EXCELLENT WARMING FOR KICT COUNTRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPR 50S LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS BOTH MON & TUE. ON TUE NGT...THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD SURGE SE ACROSS KS AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID-UPR WAVE CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SURGES SE TOWARD THE UPR-MS VALLEY HOWEVER MOISTURE
IS AT A PREMIUM...SO FRONT SHOULD SURGE THROUGH THE NEIGHBORHOOD VOID OF
PRECIPITATION.
WED-THU:
WITH THE 2ND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT SURGING SE ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD
LATE TUE NGT PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON TEMPS. WITH
MODELS POSSESSING A SUSPECT TRACK RECORD WITH RESPECT TO ARCTIC SURGES
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY IT COOL ALL AREAS UNDERCUTTING MOST GUIDANCE 3-5F
FOR MOST OF THESE LATTER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN. WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE
STRATUS TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND COULD BRING
CEILINGS TO IFR AT KCNU. SOME DRIZZLE OR BR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS MOISTURE. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED MVFR
CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF THAT
HAPPENING AS OF YET PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HIGH IN THIS HAPPENING TONIGHT.
SCHRECK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 48 26 58 33 / 10 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 48 25 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 48 26 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 48 26 57 33 / 10 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 48 27 57 33 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELL 48 23 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 47 23 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 48 25 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 48 25 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 49 30 56 34 / 20 0 0 0
CHANUTE 49 29 56 34 / 10 0 0 0
IOLA 48 29 56 34 / 10 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 49 29 56 34 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
