FXUS63 KJKL 302015
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE TO
SPEAK OF. HOWEVER...SYSTEMS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER
CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH AND WILL NOT BE THROUGH THE AREA
FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO. CONSEQUENTLY...LINGERING LOW CLOUD COVER
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL OF OVERNIGHT FOG FORMATION.
THE NAM APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING EVENTS...AND FCST
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS HOLD ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FCST WINDOW.
SO DELAYED MOST SIGNIFICANT CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING. RAPID CLEARING LATE...COMBINED WITH SLACKENING WINDS AND
ADDED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT OR POSSIBLY TOWARDS DAWN...
PARTICULARLY FOR OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS. THEREAFTER...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND FAIR WEATHER.
THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE...AND THEREFORE DID NOT STRAY
FAR FROM MOS TEMPS.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...CLOSED LOW THAT HAD BEEN PARKED OVER 
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT EASTWARD TO IN RESPONSE TO 110 KNOT 
SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS EASTWARD EJECTION WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO RAMPED 
UP 100-110 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRAVERSING THE SOUTH CONUS. 
MEANWHILE...THE POLAR JET BEGINS TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER TROUGH OVER 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DRAGGING A TRULY POLAR AIRMASS WITH IT. GFS 
HAS BACKED AWAY FROM STRONGER PHASING BETWEEN POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL 
JETS AND AS A RESULT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST GULF COAST 
AND MOVES TOWARD THE CWA WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING 
EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL 
POPS ON WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE STRONG DOWNSLOPE 
COMPONENT WITH LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER. 
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS 
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK. THIS DRAGS 
THE POWERFUL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG CAA ON THE BACK 
SIDE AND A LATE CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIX LATE ON WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT. EXPECT NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS CHANGE OVER AS GROUND WILL 
STILL BE QUITE WARM. STILL WILL BE OPTIMISTIC THAT THERE COULD BE A 
SLIGHT DIURNAL WARMUP ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL MOST LIKELY SEE 
NEAR STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES. 

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW 
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AT THIS POINT 
WILL KEEP THINGS LIMITED TO VERY LIGHT SNOW AND MOST LIKELY JUST 
FLURRIES. AS A RESULT...AM NOT GOING WITH ANY ACCUMULATION OTHER 
THAN JUST A DUSTING ON THE RIDGETOPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST RIDGES NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COULD 
SEE AN INCH OR SO BY THE TIME THE EVENT ENDS. 12Z EURO DID COME IN 
WITH MORE QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP 
LAPSE RATES FROM HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH...COULD SEE SOME LARGER 
SNOWFALL TOTALS ON RIDGES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IN CASE HIGHER 
POPS/SNOW TOTALS ARE WARRANTED. FOR NOW WILL HANG ON TO 20 POPS FOR 
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

RELIED MORE ON RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS 
THESE USUALLY WORK BETTER FOR STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. THIS RESULTS 
IN HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY BELOW GUIDANCE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON. 
COULD END UP WITH A SIZABLE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPLIT ON TUESDAY NIGHT
...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS WERE SKY COVER IS DELAYED. 
UPPER TWENTIES IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS WITH UPPER 30S ON THE RIDGES 
SEEMS REASONABLE. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY 
COULD JUMP THE MERCURY UP TO THE LOWER 50S BEFORE FROPA...HOWEVER 
THIS IS STILL BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW CIGS CLIMBING
FAST. CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT FROM CURRENT LIFR/MVFR TO VFR
LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT VFR
STRATO CU WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY TRANSIT THE AREA...CAUSING WINDS VEER OUT OF
THE SOUTH...SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER 
AVIATION...RAY