FXUS62 KMLB 110915
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...INCREASING WIND/SWELL WILL CAUSE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER
THE ATLANTIC STARTING TONIGHT...
CURRENT...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AS OF 08Z.
ABUNDANT LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID LVL WSW FLOW WAS
PRODUCING MULTILYRD CLOUDINESS WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...AFFECTING
MOST OF THE CWA. CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPS UP IN THE L/M50S OVER
THE NRN/CTRL CWA...WHILE READINGS HAD FALLEN INTO THE L60S SOUTH.
LAST VESTIGES OF FRONTAL PRECIP BAND WERE DISSIPATING ACROSS OKEE/
INDIAN RVR AND ST LUCIE COS.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH CTRD OVER THE MID MS VLY WILL DRIFT
E TO ENE OVER THE NEXT H24...RESULTING IN BRISK N-NNE FLOW TO VEER
TO NE AND EAST...WITH AN INCRS IN MEAN PWAT VALUES FROM LATE THIS
AFTN ONWARD AS MARINE MODIFICATION OVERSPREADS ECFL. PROBABLY NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REDEVELOPING UNTIL THIS AFTN WHEN MARINE
SHRA MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA...AS UPGLIDE REMAINS RATHER WEAK
AND SHALLOW. COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN FALL OUT OF THE LOW
-MID DECK THAT WILL BE PREVALENT OVHD TODAY...BUT DON'T SEE ANYTHING
TO JUSTIFY ANYTHING MORE THAN THE 30/40 POPS THAT WE HAVE FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
WEEKEND...STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE WHILE ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE MODELS SHOW RATHER
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SAT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG/NORTH OF
NORTHWARD RETREATING WARM FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND RATHER HIGH RAIN CHANCES. WITH SUCH STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW AND RETURNING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THERE COULD BE SOME
HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
ON SUNDAY THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS ALONG WITH LESS CLOUDINESS WILL
RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...MOS SHOWS TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FORMING DURING DAYTIME HEATING LOOKS QUITE LOW
AS ATMOSPHERIC DRYING OCCURS. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE MOS VALUES BEING 30 PERCENT OR LESS.
MON-WED...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED ON MON SHOULD PRODUCE DRY
WEATHER...THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY ON TUE WILL PRODUCE FALLING HEIGHTS. PRE FRONTAL
MOISTURE BAND SHOULD REACH THE AREA TUE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY WED. MOST POPS REMAIN ONLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
LOOKS WEAK AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH. IT
WILL REMAIN WARM MON-TUE WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 80...THEN POST
FRONTAL COOLING WED SHOULD KNOCK READINGS BACK TO AT OR BELOW
NORMAL.
THU-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE AS TROUGH ALOFT IS MAINTAINED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S./WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL WINDS BEING SLOW TO VEER AND MODIFY THE COOL/DRY AIR MASS.
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL AND EXPECT MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WITH RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE BY FRI...WHICH
IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS...AND WILL WANT TO SEE MORE
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE SIDING WITH IT.
&&
.AVIATION...LOOKS AS THOUGH MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED JUST SOUTH OF VRB
...AND PROBABLY WON'T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LWR CIGS RETURNING BACK
NWD UNTIL TNGT/SAT WITH INCRS IN LW LVL MOISTURE AND POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS GRDLY BECOMING SHALLOWER. GNRLY VFR WITH CIGS BTWN
FL060-100 WITH SOME LWR CIGS (MVFR) LATER TNGT.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY/TNGT...SEAS GNRLY 4-5FT OFFSHORE ATTM. WNAWAVE CONTINUES
TO SHOW INCREASE IN WINDSPEEDS AS THEY VEER TO NE-E TODAY/TNGT WITH
LONG FETCH LENGTH SENDING INCRSG SWELL INTO THE MARINE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF INCRSG WIND/SWELL WILL MAKE FOR INCRSGLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDS STARTING TNGT...AND AS SUCH HAVE INITIATED SCA FOR
ALL OFFSHORE (20-60NM) LEGS AT 06Z (1 AM) SAT.
WEEKEND...SAT LOOKS LIKE A BAD DAY FOR BOATING DUE TO RATHER
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/SHOWERS. HAVE ALREADY
STARTED AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES AND WILL PROBABLY NEED
ONE FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES TOO. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER
BOATING DAY AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AND
DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS.
MON-TUE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA ON MON SHOULD RESULT
IN WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. PRE FRONTAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
TUE ARE EXPECTED AT SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 62 59 75 65 / 30 40 60 50
MCO 65 56 77 63 / 30 40 60 50
MLB 71 65 77 68 / 30 40 60 50
VRB 73 66 78 69 / 30 40 60 40
LEE 61 53 75 62 / 30 40 60 50
SFB 64 57 77 64 / 30 40 60 50
ORL 66 56 76 63 / 30 40 60 50
FPR 73 66 79 68 / 30 40 50 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....LASCODY
