FXUS62 KMLB 011457
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BAND DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF EC FL THIS MORNING 
EXTENDING ROUGHLY ACROSS METRO ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL AREA. LOW 
PRESSURE AREA HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF AND HAS DEEPENED DOWN TO 1005 MB AS OF 14Z. THE FRONTAL BAND 
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD BY THIS EVENING AS STRONG U/L JET 
ROUNDS BASE OF LOW ALOFT OVER TEXAS AND THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW 
LIFTS NE TOWARD THE GULF COAST NEAR WRN FL PANHANDLE. MAIN CONCERNS 
FOR LOCAL WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE EXTENT OF CLOUDS 
NEAR FRONTAL BAND AND LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME LINGERING 
MORNING LOW STRATUS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE THIS MORNING BUT 
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. SHRA 
CHANCES REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE BUT WORTH A SLIGHT MENTION ACROSS 
NORTHERN SECTIONS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTING THIS 
SCENARIO. WILL MONITOR TRENDS BUT AT THIS POINT APPEARS NO SIG 
CHANGES NEEDED TO ZONES/GRIDS THIS MORNING.
 
&&

.AVIATION...LINGERING MVFR CIG REDUCTIONS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 
~16Z WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE 
NORTHERN SECTIONS NEAR KLEE-KSFB-KDAB INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS VEERING NE-E OVER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTN THEN SELY 
AND INCREASING INTO THIS EVENING AS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. WILL 
LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PLAN TO ISSUE 
SCEC/SCA WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD. 
OTHERWISE...WILL MAINLY FRESHEN WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

(PREVIOUS)TODAY...WINDS CURRENTLY WSTRLY JUST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTHWARD LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL 
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG DOWN INTO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND OFF OF THE MID ATLC COAST 
BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NW-N 
AND EVENTUALLY NE...AND FINALLY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS 
WILL AVERAGE NEAR 10 KTS NEAR SHORE AND 10-15 TO AROUND A SOLID 15 
KTS SUSTAINED OFFSHORE. SEAS MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS.

TONIGHT...AN E COMPONENT OF WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER TO SE-SSE 
THRU THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF 
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE NORTH GULF AND SOUTH 
GULF COAST STATES. MODELS PRESENTLY DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF WINDS THIS 
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15-20 KTS OFFSHORE AND 
AROUND 10-15/15 KTS NEAR SHORE. AT THE VERY LEAST CAUTIONARY 
STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND 
POTENTIALLY CLOSER IN. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS 
IN CASE A SCA IS NECESSARY (MAINLY FOR WINDS). SEAS WILL BE SLOWER 
TO RESPOND...THOUGH COULD RISE TO 5 FT (OFFSHORE NORTH LEG) BY 
DAYBREAK WED. 

THROUGH MIDWEEK APPROACH OF STRONG GULF SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
ADVISORY BY WED AFTN AND INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

GLITTO/BRAGAW