FXUS61 KILN 262343
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PCPN HAS FILLED IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. PCPN HAS GENERALLY
BEEN RAIN ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SEEN A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN THIS AFTERNOON....LIKELY AS A RESULT OF
SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH PCPN ONSET. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST AS TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES THROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING THAT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP BULK OF PCPN
RAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE MIXING WITH SNOW LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY THAT TIME THOUGH...MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN SHOULD HAVE TAPERED OFF. BETWEEN THAT AND THE
FACT THAT THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY WARM...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LITTLE BIT
OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY
TIGHT SW TO NE 925-850 MB MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SOME SUN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WILL TREND TEMPS A LITTLE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT WARM UP
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO RETURN FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND DEVELOPING FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SPREAD INTO REGION. MODELS BRINGING BEST RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF SOLUTION. SMALL CHC FOR SUN AFTN. LEFT SMALL CHC FOR
MONDAY NIGHT FOR NOW SHOULD MODELS SLOW A BIT. SHOULD BE RAIN
THROUGH PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE CHANGED ON SYSTEM EVOLVING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURS.
TAKING MORE EASTERN TRACK OF LOW WHICH LEAVES AREA DRY WITH COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON COMING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEFORE ISSUANCE OF FCST IF ANY
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
GUIDANCE THROUGH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY LOWERED CEILINGS. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR WILL OCCUR AT CVG AND LUK BY AROUND 14Z. DAY AND ILN WILL
SEE VFR BY 16Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST AT CMH AND LCK THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
UNTIL SUBSIDING LATE.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
