FXUS64 KBMX 300321
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
920 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.UPDATE...FOR ZONE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS HAS SHIFTED EAST/DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING TO OUR WEST...MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.  THIS AREA WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.  WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN HIGH POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST OBS.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS ARE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TAFS...AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS AREA.  CONFIDENCE IS
A BIT LOWER WITH INITIAL BATCH(ES) OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...REGARDING
HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE AND HOW LOW IT WILL TAKE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.  HOWEVER...I HAVE AN INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THERE
WILL BE A MULTI-HOUR PERIOD OF CEILINGS BELOW 1500 FEET AND
VISIBILITIES BELOW 5 MILES (PERHAPS LOWER THAN 1000 FEET AND/OR 3
MILES AT TIMES) AFTER 30/1500Z.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL COME JUST
AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
MARKED BY A WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

MODELS DO INDICATE A QUICK DRYING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR TCL...BHM...AND EET AREAS.  STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW QUICK THIS WILL OCCUR...AND WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THINGS CLEARED OUT SLOWER THAN CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
KSL