FXUS63 KGID 240445
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1045 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

&&

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. SNOW HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE REGION AND
APPEARS THAT WE MAY BE IN A LULL AS FAR AS SNOW GOES THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AS NEXT LOW TO
OUR SOUTH MOVES EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL
DEFINITELY REVOLVE AROUND THE WINDS WHICH ARE ALREADY INCREASING.
STILL LOOKING LIKE 30 KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/ 

.SHORT TERM...FIRST...SNOW AMOUNTS ARE AND WILL BE MUCH LESS. NEW 
FORECAST REFLECTS THAT...AND WE STILL ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE. 

SECOND...EXPECTED HIGH WINDS ARE STILL SOLID...AND WILL EASILY REACH
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL 
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS...AND ROAD CONDITION MAINTENANCE THROUGH 
CHRISTMAS DAY. 

THIS SYSTEM HAS NEVER REALLY QUITE GOT IT ACTS TOGETHER...AND THAT 
IS WHAT HAS DOOMED SNOW FORECAST. IT STILL SPLIT UP...WITH THE 
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN NEW MEXICO. THAT ENERGY IS KEY TO 
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. IF THAT CAN SHOOT MORE 
NORTH THAN EAST...MORE SNOW WILL WORK UP INTO THE CWFA. THAT IS A 
HUGE IF AND HINGES ON A GFS TYPE SOLUTION. HOWEVER AT LEAST THREE 
MODELS...CLEARLY SUGGEST THAT WON/T HAPPEN...THUS LEAVING THE CWFA 
GENERALLY VOID OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY. DIDN/T FEEL 
TOTALLY COMFORTABLE WITH NO SNOW FOR THURSDAY YET.  

THE BLIZZARD WATCH WAS CANCELED WITH MUCH LESS NOW LIKELY. 
CONFIDENCE WAS GOING DOWN IN SUBSTANTIAL FALLING SNOW WITH THE 
STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS EXTENDED FOR THE 
AREA INSTEAD...GENERALLY FOR THE HIGH WINDS...BLOWING SNOW...SOME 
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT VERY WELL COULD BE A WINTER 
WEATHER ADVISORY...AND LIKELY WILL BE DOWN TO THAT...BUT THAT CAN 
COME LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY ONCE THE WINDS ARE HERE AND 
FINAL SNOW/STORM TRENDS EMERGE FROM THIS FORECAST FOG SO TO SPEAK.

.LONG TERM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

WINTER STORM SYSTEM REMAINS THE MAIN STORY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  MODELS IN DECENT 
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SEPARATE PIECES OF ENERGY...ONE SHIFTING 
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...PHASING TOGETHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS 
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  A FEW DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE 
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM AT THE START OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT COME 
INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT BY 00Z SAT...SHOWING THE SYSTEM OVER 
THE IA/MO BORDER.  THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED...MAKING FOR ANOTHER VERY WINDY DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH 
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS 
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW.  MOISTURE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
LOW...BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCES 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.  SO BETWEEN THE 
ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND STRONG WINDS...FRIDAY CONTINUES THE TREND OF 
UNPLEASANT DAYS.

SOMETHING THAT MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS IS A SLOWER 
END TO THE PRECIPITATION.  MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW DOESNT MAKE A WHOLE 
LOT OF PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING IT 
SET UP NEAR THE WI/MN/IA BORDER.  THIS LOOKS TO KEEP MORE NUISANCE 
TYPE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND EVEN INTO SATURDAY.  
AS FAR AS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GO...BETWEEN 
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME AREAS /ESP NORTH 
OF I80/ TO PICK ANOTHER INCH OR SO.

FINALLY DRIED THINGS OUT ON SUNDAY...AND KEPT THE FORECAST QUIET 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  PLENTY OF 
DIFFERENCES PRESENT BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL PATTERN...WITH SOME HINTING AT ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS 
THE REGION MID WEEK...BUT KEEPING THINGS DRY UNTIL THERE IS BETTER 
AGREEMENT.  NO BIG SWINGS EITHER WAY IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WITH 
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$