FXUS62 KMHX 051603
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1103 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THEN NORTHEST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND EXTEND OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. WEAL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 910 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES ALTHOUGH IT IS
THINNING FROM THE WEST. SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN QUICKLY AND MOVE UP THE COAST LATER
TODAY. COASTAL TROUGH WAS ABLE TO SWING A BIT INLAND EARLIER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING A FEW DEGREES...BUT TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL
OFF OR SLOWLY FALL INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS
OFFSHORE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FCST EXCEPT TO REMOVE TIME
REFERENCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING CHC POPS...HIGHEST N...THIS EVENING WITH SHRT WV TROF
MOVING ACROSS. LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FROZEN PCPN
THREAT REMAINING N OF AREA. CLEARING AND COLDER OVERNIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN...INLAND SECTIONS WILL APPROACH FREEZING BY
EARLY SUN MORNING. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL SUN AND SUN NIGHT
WITH SFC HIGH EXTENDING OVER AREA.
MAIN CHANGE DURING PERIOD WAS TO ADD 20/30 POPS FOR -RA LATE MON AND
MON EVENING. MODELS SHOW CONTINUITY WITH RETURN FLOW/INVERTED
COASTAL TROF PRODUCING THREAT OF LIGHT QPF MAINLY ERN HALF OF AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 11 AM SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HPC/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRES MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH STRONG SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. RAIN
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WEDS
BEFORE ENDING WEDS NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY...MOST TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...SFC LOW PRES DEEPENING INVOF CAPE FEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE COAST TODAY...THEN
RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT LIFTS NE AWAY
FROM THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAPID DRYING OF THE
COLUMN THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH NW
FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN ACROSS RTES BY LATE EVENING/EARLY SUN MON RING. NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
CAA COMMENCING AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE MAY BRING REDUCED CIGS ACROSS MAINLY
ERN RTES MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW SYSTEM WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS AND STORMS TO THE REGION MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON LATEST BUOY OBS WILL RAISE WINDS
TO 15-20 KT IN THE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE LEG. OTHER THAN
THAT...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGE TO HEADLINES.
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT. MSAS ANALYSIS AND SFC OBS THIS MORNING INDICATING LOW PRES
DEEPENING NEAR CAPE FEAR AND A COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NE JUST E
OF CAPE LOOKOUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PAMLICO SOUND THEN OFFSHORE
NEAR RODANTHE. WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT INVOF THE TROUGH...NE UP
TO 20 KT N OF THE TROUGH AND S/SE AROUND 10-15 KT S OF THE TROUGH.
THE LOW WILL TRACK VERY NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MOVE
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFFSHORE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG N/NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WATERS TO AROUND 25-30 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUN/SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL FOR SEAS AS WAVEWATCH SEEMS TO HAVE
INITIALIZED 1-2 FT TOO LOW. THE SWAN MODEL DEVELOPS SEAS TO AROUND
6 FT MID TO LATE MORNING AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT
HEADLINES. SEAS PEAK AT AROUND 8 FT OFF THE NRN/CNTRL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN/SUN NIGHT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W.
HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LVL FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE S STREAM JET WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
BIGGEST IMPACT LOCALLY WILL BE A RESULT OF THE STRONG LOW LVL JET
AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION. SEAS ARE EXP TO BUILD TO NEAR DOUBLE
DIGITS AND WINDS TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT IF NOT GALES.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/SK
MARINE...HSA/SK
