FXUS61 KBGM 282345
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANY
SNOW SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING SOME RAIN WITH IT. BEHIND
THE FRONT...COLDER AIR WILL ENTER THE AREA...WITH LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM...UPSLOPE SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OTSEGO AND DELAWARE COUNTIES.
INCLUDED A LOW END CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING FROM NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY NORTH THROUGH
OTSEGO...EASTERN MADISON/CORTLAND AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
RADAR TRENDS I WAS TEMPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT LAKE DELTA T'S ARE ONLY AROUND 12
EARLY TONIGHT WITH WARMING OF THE MID LAYERS. FELT IT WAS PRUDENT
TO AT LEAST KEEP IN LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
POTENTIAL...EVEN IF ITS FAIRLY LIMITED. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
OTHER FOCUS TONIGHT IS THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF CLEARING. GEM
REGIONAL AND LOCAL WRF STILL SEEM TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB IN
SHOWING A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST CLEARING TREND
OVERNIGHT. PROCESS WILL BE SLOW WITH CLEARING EXPECTED NEAR KELM
BY 0Z...BY 03Z ON A LINE FROM KITH TO KBGM...AND PERHAPS NOT UNTIL
AFTER 06Z AT KSYR THROUGH KRME. WITH WAA AND CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE...TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE FALLING MUCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS
HOLDING IN THE 30S. IF CLEARING TREND IS FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY DRY AT THIS TIME...WITH
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
CROSS NY AND PA...ALONG AND JUST PRECEDING THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FRONT. THERE IS SOME LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES...AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS DEVELOP
FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...AND THE
OVERALL MOISTURE SUPPLY IS NOT THAT DEEP...AS NEITHER GULF OR
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SEEM TO GET INVOLVED. THUS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SOME DRIER AIR AND SINKING MOTION SET IN POST-
FROPA. ACROSS CENTRAL NY...THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET
BY AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LAKES ONTARIO/ERIE...AND
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TWIN TIERS. THUS...A
FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATER IN THE DAY.
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VALLEYS AND THE POCONOS)...ONCE
THE MORNING RAIN PULLS OUT...THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY...AND
SOME CLEARING COULD EVEN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARAMETERS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LES DEVELOPMENT. FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...IT DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE A MAJOR EVENT...WITH TRANSITIONING FLOW (300-310 TO
START...EVENTUALLY BACKING TO AROUND 270 BY LATE TUESDAY)...AND A
LOWERING INVERSION BY EARLY TUESDAY. CERTAINLY...SOME
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED REASONING
SUGGESTS TOP END AMOUNTS OF JUST A FEW INCHES IN ANY ONE AREA.
OBVIOUSLY...LATER SHIFTS WILL FURTHER ASSESS THE SITUATION...AS IT
GETS CLOSER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXTENDED BASED ON BLEND OF
70% ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 30% GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH REGION UNDER
SOUTHWEST MODERATING FLOW EVEN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF STATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. GFS MORE IN
LINE WITH ECMWF THAN YESTERDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST. PRECIP WILL LIKELY MOVE IN WED NIGHT WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR
NOW. PRECIP TYPE STILL TRICKY WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING, WILL
CONTINUE WITH SNOW/RAIN MIX. ON THURSDAY, TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN ALL AREAS WITH CAA BEGINNING LATE DAY. REST OF EXTENDED
WILL BE COOL WITH AREA UNDER MEAN H5 TROF AND W/NW FLOW PROVIDING
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...MVFR CIGS ARE RETREATING NEWD THIS EVNG...BUT WILL
PERSIST FOR THE BETTER PORTION OF TNGT AT SYR/RME. OTRW VFR THRU
SUNDAY AFTN.
AREA OF 2-3 KFT CIGS ACRS CNTRL NY AND XTRM NE PA IS SLOWLY
RETREATING NEWD THIS EVNG...BACKEDGE PASSING ELM/BGM/ITH BETWEEN
0Z AND 02Z. THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND MAY SLOW A BIT LATER
TNGT...BUT ATTM XPCT SYR TO TRANSITION TO BKN VFR CIGS BETWEEN
03-06Z. AT RME...XPCT MVFR TO PREVAIL TIL ARND 12Z. OTRW...MAINLY
SKC OR FEW/SCT035 TNGT INTO TMRW. WE BELIEVE SOME OF THE MDLS
BRING IN LOW TO MID LVL MSTR TOO QUICKLY TMRW...AND 18Z NAM IS
TRENDING IN THAT "DRIER" DIRECTION. XPCT VFR TO PREVAIL ON SUNDAY
WITH GNRLY FEW-SCT MID/HI CLD...THEN OVC 4-5K FT DECK XPCTD TO
WORK INTO THE ITH/SYR/RME AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. WIND TNGT WRLY
10-20 KTS AT SYR...10 KTS OR LESS ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING TO LGT
SWLY OR L&V TNGT...THEN SRLY ON SUNDAY 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT TO TUE NGT...MVFR/VFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPDATED...SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF SNOW WILL BE TIED WITH THE CLIMATE REPORT ISSUED THIS
EVENING. WITH NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE RECORD SHOULD BE BROKEN ON SUNDAY. THE SYRACUSE AREA
HAS NOT HAD AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY SINCE
FEBRUARY 24TH. THE WHOLE MONTH OF MARCH HAD LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW WHICH SET A RECORD. THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX
DATABASE USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT.
THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEARDAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 1946 276 DAYS FEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
1) 2009 276 DAYS FEB 25TH TO NOV 28TH SO FAR
3) 1998274 DAYSMAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978 265 DAYS MAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941 263 DAYS MAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...RRM
