FXUS64 KAMA 081719 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1119 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.UPDATE...
WE ARE UPDATING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND FORECAST PACKAGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE BAND OF SNOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. WILL
EXTEND IN TIME THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES THROUGH 4 PM. BASICALLY...THIS INCLUDES POINTS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CAPROCK. ALSO...WE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS DOWN ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES. PLUS...WE HAVE REMOVED THE BLOWING DUST
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AND MENTIONED SNOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

JJB/MJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/ 

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MULTIPLE AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRST...FZFG AND -FZDZ COULD IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING. FOR KAMA AND KDHT...EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH 15Z. FOR
KGUY IMPACTS COULD CONTINUE AS LATE AS 18Z...BUT LIKELY ONLY AS LATE
AS 16Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z AT LEAST...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KGUY...WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD PERSIST THROUGH 00Z.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE A BIG CONCERN. THERE WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND MID MORNING...AND WITH THAT...A DRAMATIC
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE INCLUDING KAMA. AN AWW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAMA FROM 14Z
THROUGH 00Z FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO NEAR 50KTS. ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION BETWEEN 21Z FOR THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES...AND BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z FOR KAMA. WITH THIS WIND
SHIFT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A LITTLE TO AROUND 15G25KT. WINDS MAY
DIMINISH FURTHER AFTER 06Z.

SJOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
VERY BUSY FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS
MORNING...HIGH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SHOULD
APPROACH THE PANHANDLES BY 18Z TODAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WINTRY
PRECIP THIS MORNING...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE POPS AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 18Z TODAY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH ON PRECIP AFTER 18Z...HOWEVER STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. WILL ALSO LEAVE POPS FROM 18Z TODAY TO
00Z WEDNESDAY ALONE. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY WITH THIS MID AND
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THIS AREA FROM 16Z TODAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
CAPROCK WITH A QUICK DROP OFF ON WIND SPEEDS OFF THE CAPROCK TODAY.
SURROUNDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS TODAY WILL BE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LESSEN BY
THIS EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLES ACROSS NORTHERN KS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES THE LAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT. ALSO... A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE
NORTHERLY WINDS FROM DECREASING TOO EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE OK
AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLES TONIGHT...WILL ALSO ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 03Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS TODAY...AREA OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TX PANHANDLE. GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY WEST OF THE
CAPROCK OR WEST OF A CLARENDON TO PAMPA LINE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DUE TO RH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
30 PERCENT TODAY...RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET.
NO FURTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: CARSON...DALLAM...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...MOORE.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: CIMARRON.

&&

$$

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