FXUS63 KPAH 071203
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
603 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009

.UPDATE...
REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...NO CHANGE TO PUBLIC 
DISCUSSION. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
-RA/-SN/-PL EVENT NEARLY OVER...W/MAYBE 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ON
MAINLY GRASSY AREAS IN OUR FARTHEST NE PTNS FA. BRIEF REPRIEVE
TODAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED INDEED...AS MOISTURE RAMPS BACK UP AGAIN
TONIGHT. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE MODELLED BEST RECENTLY AND WILL GO MORE
TOWARD ITS SOLUTION W/RETURN CHANCE PCPN...MEANING FASTER APPROACH
LIKE THIS SYSTEM. THAT ALSO MEANS INSERTING A CHC PCPN INTO THE
LATE TONIGHT PTN OF THE FCST...BUT GFS IS LIKEWISE WARMER IN THE
LOWER TROP/BLAYER AND IT SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID AS A RESULT. 

LATEST SWODY2 HAS GEN RISK THUNDER AS FAR NORTH AS OUR
COUNTIES...BUT THE GFS ELEVATED STABILITY PARAMETERS MERELY FLIRT
W/MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE INSTABILITY AT BEST. IT APPEARS THE COLLAB
CHOICE IS TO LEAVE THUNDER TO OUR SOUTH BUT WE'LL MONITOR THAT
THRU PRESS TIME BEFORE THE FINAL CALL.

DECENT QPF (1/2-1") EVENT ON AVERAGE TUE-TUE NIGHT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A WINDY LATE TUE NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE TIGHTLY
WOUND LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...WE COULD SEE GUSTS TO
30 MPH WED. 

NO CHANGES MADE TO DAY 5-BEYOND PTN FCST AND SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD
GFS BASED TEMPS W/GFS BIAS TO FORECAST OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MVFR 
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...LIKELY BECOMING 
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM 
WILL SPREAD VFR CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN MAY 
BEGIN TO IMPACT KCGI AND KPAH LATE TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE 
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTH/ 
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS 
AFTERNOON...THEN TURN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$