FXUS65 KABQ 212213
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MST MON DEC 21 2009
...WINTER STORM POISED TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCHES EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH...
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS
OF A WINTER STORM WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE STATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
LOCATED NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL DIVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
IN VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A BOWLING BALL CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN PROGRESSIVELY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN VIGOROUS THROUGH ITS TREK
ACROSS THE STATE BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM /GIVEN
CURRENT PROGS/ SHOULD DETER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASED JET ALOFT WILL DEVELOP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WEST
AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. INITIALLY...ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE TO KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AROUND 7500 FT AND
ABOVE. COLDER AIR WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT RIFLES OUT OF ARIZONA AND SWEEPS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SEND 700MB TEMPS IN A TUMBLE TOWARD
-5 TO -10 DEGREES.
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY OVER THE WEST
WITH THE SNOW AXIS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
BETWEEN SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND MIDDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL
PLATEAU...MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS /ESPECIALLY WITH THE
FRONT/ AND WILL EXPAND THE WATCH TO INCLUDE THESE ZONES WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY /INCLUDING THE ABQ
METRO/ AND OTHER LOWER ELEVATIONS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 1 TO 3
INCH SWATH OF SNOW. THIS AND OTHER AREAS BELOW 7500 FEET ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WEST MAY REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH
FUTURE SHIFTS.
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES EAST AND
THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL
POUR COLDER AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY
POSITION NICELY WITH TROWAL REGION OF THE LOW. POTENTIAL COULD
EXIST FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. SINCE THIS IS A SOLID 48+
HOURS AWAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS WITH AN SPS DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTIES.
SYSTEM DEPARTS BY THURSDAY BUT A COLD AIRMASS WILL GRIP THE STATE
THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO BUILD
INTO THE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM HANGS ON ITS
HEELS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER.
KW
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH 22/0900UTC BEFORE TOP DOWN MOISTENING ACCELERATES AND
SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE IN VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS
SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SPREAD EASTWARD.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE TX PANHANDLE
HAS LED TO BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE EAST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WINDS HAVE THUS FAR STAYED BELOW
CRITICAL CRITERIA...AND OVERALL CURRENT FIRE WX FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT RIDGE TOP LEVEL TONIGHT WITH
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL SLOW
DOWN OVERNIGHT COOLING AND INVERSIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
PRONOUNCED TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING. RH WILL
RECOVER TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT CATEGORIES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. HIGHEST OVERNIGHT RH WILL BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER
NEW MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS WILL WRAP SOUTH OF THE STORM...HUGGING
THE MEXICAN BORDER...LEAVING ONLY SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RISING DEWPOINTS AND LOWERING
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP RH VALUES ON THE INCREASE. A LARGE PORTION OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS STILL EXPECTED TO SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
INCREASED GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL OVERTAKE
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY IN A TWO PART FASHION...WITH A PACIFIC
SEGMENT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST AND A BACK DOOR SEGMENT SPILLING
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A PACIFIC STORM COULD THEN
IMPACT NEW MEXICO BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 24 40 24 37 / 10 50 70 30
DULCE........................... 13 36 17 31 / 10 60 70 50
CUBA............................ 17 37 19 29 / 5 50 70 40
GALLUP.......................... 23 40 20 33 / 5 50 70 30
EL MORRO........................ 20 37 18 29 / 5 40 80 40
GRANTS.......................... 20 41 23 32 / 5 30 70 40
QUEMADO......................... 23 41 21 29 / 5 30 70 30
GLENWOOD........................ 30 50 29 39 / 0 20 70 20
CHAMA........................... 13 33 15 30 / 10 70 70 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 22 39 21 31 / 0 40 60 50
PECOS........................... 23 40 21 33 / 0 20 40 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 14 37 16 30 / 0 30 50 50
RED RIVER....................... 13 30 15 25 / 0 40 60 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 15 32 15 28 / 0 30 60 60
TAOS............................ 15 38 19 32 / 0 30 50 50
ESPANOLA........................ 19 45 24 37 / 0 30 50 50
SANTA FE........................ 23 40 23 32 / 0 30 50 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 24 41 26 33 / 0 20 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 29 45 28 37 / 0 20 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 30 45 30 39 / 0 20 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 47 28 40 / 0 20 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 46 29 39 / 0 20 50 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 26 49 25 41 / 0 20 50 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 28 45 29 38 / 0 20 50 50
SOCORRO......................... 29 53 29 41 / 0 20 40 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 26 42 24 35 / 0 20 50 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 24 45 25 35 / 0 10 40 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 26 41 24 33 / 0 10 40 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 28 47 27 35 / 0 10 40 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 31 51 30 39 / 0 10 40 40
RUIDOSO......................... 33 44 30 35 / 0 10 50 40
CAPULIN......................... 20 42 19 31 / 0 5 30 60
RATON........................... 21 45 21 33 / 0 10 30 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 26 44 22 33 / 0 10 30 60
CLAYTON......................... 28 48 25 36 / 0 0 20 60
ROY............................. 29 45 26 37 / 0 5 20 50
CONCHAS......................... 30 54 29 42 / 0 5 20 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 32 55 30 42 / 0 5 20 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 28 54 30 42 / 0 0 10 50
CLOVIS.......................... 31 56 33 44 / 0 0 10 40
PORTALES........................ 31 58 32 44 / 0 0 10 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 30 59 31 43 / 0 5 20 50
ROSWELL......................... 32 58 35 49 / 0 0 20 40
PICACHO......................... 33 57 33 45 / 0 5 30 40
ELK............................. 32 53 31 41 / 0 5 30 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502>506-508-510-511.
&&
$$
17/52
