FXUS63 KJKL 261957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

DRY SLOT WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST AT LEAST TO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SYSTEM OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO SWING BACK THIS WAY. IF IT PERSISTS LONGER TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DIP MORE THAN EXPECTED BUT WILL STICK CLOSE WITH GUIDANCE AND
CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.

OLD AND VERY OCCLUDED SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WI HAS A STILL STRONG
VORTICITY MAX SWINGING WESTWARD OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/UP MI. THE
VORT MAX WILL PHASE WITH ARCTIC JET DIVING SOUTH FROM NUNAVUT AS IT
ACTS AS KICKER FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST STORM. RESULT WILL BE A DECENT
LOOKING UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
EAST KY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE WITH VERY LITTLE LEFT AT LOWER
LEVELS TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC JET THIS TROUGH WILL NOT TARRY...LIKELY A QUICK SHOT OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY EVE AND LINGERING FOR MOUNTAINS. SO
KEPT THE FAVORED POPS IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING
SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL VELOCITY/MOISTURE/AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNING UPSLOPE LOOK LIKE JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME AREAS
MEASURABLE SNOW BUT OTHER PLACES JUST A DUSTING. OVERALL MOST PLACES
WILL SEE AT LEAST A BIT.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

HAVE FOLLOWED MOSTLY THE GFS THRU EARLY THU AND THEN BLENDED TOWARDS 
MOSTLY ECWMF THRU THE END OF FCST. FCST STARTS OUT WITH THE TAIL END 
OF A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE EAST COAST 
TROF WITH THE ENSUING UPSLOPE LIGHT PCPN FOR THE ERN COUNTIES. 
WED-EARLY THU IS BASICALLY FAIR WX IN ALL MODELS SO NO MAOR CHANGES 
THERE. HAVE THEN FOLLOWED THE 12Z ECWMF FOR CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF 
THE GULF LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE FLA PANNHANDLE BEFORE EMERGING 
INTO THE CAROLINA COAST AND DEVELOPING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM 
SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS 
TO DRAW MORE COLD AIR INTO ERN KY AND WITH SOME MOISTURE SHULD 
PRODUCE SOME SNOW. HOWEVER ATTM THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG 
UNTIL IT IS WELL NORTH OF THE VA/DC AREA SO NOT AS MUCH SNOW FOR ERN 
KY EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

EXPECT VFR ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE AREA IS UNDER THE DRY SLOT AND
SURFACE RIDGING. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST MAXING OUT BETWEEN
15 AND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS A MID LEVEL BKN
DECK MOVES THRU WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO
BETWEEN 040-050 WITH NO RESTRICTION TO VSBY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...GV
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...DUSTY