FXUS64 KSHV 030009 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR ADVECTION SWEEPING AROUND BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW...WHICH
IS OPENING UP AND MOVING INTO WEST TN. WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST MOST OF THE NIGHT...THE MAIN REASON FOR THINKING THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REACH FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS AT
LEAST LA PORTIONS OF THE AREA. REMOVED THAT PORTION FROM THE
FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT. DEEP POLAR AIRMAS IN PLACE ACROSS AREA...
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT MORE PRONOUNCED THAN AT SFC.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK
AS WELL...HOWEVER...MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BE SAVING GRACE
FROM WIDESPREAD FREEZE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THIS UPPER LVL
TROF...WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF DEVELOPING SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
TX. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO EAST TX LAKES...AND
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. LIGHTER SNOW PSBL NORTHWARD TO AROUND
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WITH MSTR BECMG MEAGER FURTHER NORTH.
ASIDE FROM SFC TEMPS BEING ABOVE FREEZING...VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW...WITH 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING AT AROUND -4C
OR COLDER. ANY RAIN SNOW MIX IN LOW LVL DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20
ACROSS MOST OF AREA...AND FREEZE WARNING WILL BE ANTICIPATED.
NOT MUCH OF A BREAK FROM WINTER AS A POWERFUL 1060 HIGH PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO SW CANADA. HOWEVER FROM THERE...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STEERING OF THIS COLD DOME OF AIR./VII/
AVIATION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER EAST
ARKANSAS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN / DRIZZLE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MVFR TO VFR TONIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH 04/00Z. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 35 48 33 44 28 / 10 0 10 20 20
MLU 36 50 32 44 30 / 10 0 10 10 20
DEQ 30 45 29 42 25 / 10 0 10 10 10
TXK 30 47 32 41 27 / 10 0 10 10 10
ELD 34 48 32 43 27 / 10 0 10 10 10
TYR 34 49 34 41 25 / 10 0 10 20 20
GGG 34 49 34 44 26 / 10 0 10 20 20
LFK 37 52 35 42 25 / 10 0 10 40 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ070>072.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125.
&&
$$
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