FXUS63 KMPX 262102
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...

OCCLUDED UPPER LOW NICELY WRAPPED UP AND DRIFTING NW ACROSS WI. 
PERSISTENT AREA OF -SN IN AREA OF CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT 
WELL NW OF UPPER LOW ACROSS N MN INTO THE DAKOTAS HAS BEEN BRUSHING 
WC MN WITH SCT -SN. LIFT DECREASES SLOWLY THRU THE EVENING...AND 
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THRU 06Z. LOBE OF VORTICITY HAS BEEN 
ROTATING AROUND PARENT UPPER LOW AND NOW ACRS W LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 
SOME ENHANCED CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NE INTO EC MN. WIDESRPEAD 
VSBYS IN 1-2SM RANGE ACROSS NE MN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH 
A FEW VSBYS BLO 1SM.  UPPED POPS AND SNW AMOUNTS A BIT THRU 06Z FOR 
E MN CWA AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU.  MAY SEE A FEW 1 INCH SNOW 
AMOUNTS FROM THIS FEATURE. 

UPPER LOW BEGINS TO KICK OUT ON SUNDAY WITH REMAINING PRECIPITATION 
AS FEW SPITS OF --SN.  

QUIET PATTERN THEN FOR A COUPLE DAYS IN NWLY FLOW. UPPER AIR PATTERN 
THEN FLATTENS ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES TO MOVE THRU AREA. 
RETAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. A BIT OF A 
DIFFERENCE ON TIMING ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BIT STRONGER WAVE 
BEHIND IT. GFS MOVES IT THRU ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ECMWF A 
BIT SLOWER.  KEPT OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NE CWA ON THURS FOR NOW 
AND DIDN'T DO ANY FURTHER EXPANSION ON IT UNTIL BETTER RESOLVED. 

&&

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL CONTINUE 
TO WOBBLE AND FILL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAD LIFTED NORTH AND WEST OF TAF SITES THIS 
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE  AND DRY EASTERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE 
THE LOW CLOUDS OVER WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL MN.  MARGINAL VFR 
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN ONE THIRD OF MN. 
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER ALL THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE. 
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

BAP/JM