FXUS61 KBOX 150731
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
230 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL STORM MAY THREATEN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT ITS TRACK AND ANY AFFECTS ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A FEW SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH EARLY THIS MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WERE JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THIS
REGION SO ANY BRIEF SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE LIQUID
FORM.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY A DRY AND MILD MID DECEMBER DAY IS ON TAP FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL LIKELY TRAP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RATHER CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER...MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A MILD START SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 40S TO POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. WHILE THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...IT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. LOW TEMPERATURES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WEDNESDAY...
DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IT WILL BE A WINDY AND VERY
COLD DAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOWED MOS GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES BASED
ON 2 METER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY
FALL JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH CRITERIA.
REGARDLESS...WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. IT CERTAINLY WILL FEEL VERY COLD AFTER THE MILD WEATHER OF
TODAY.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY DAY.
HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A PASSING SNOW
SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH AS WELL AS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A 20
POP IN THIS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THU...SNE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN SFC LOW IN THE MARITIMES AND
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT AND CAA WILL RESULT
IN WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 TO -16C.
UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BUT WENT CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR THE MINS AS WINDS DO NOT DROP OFF. MAX TEMPS AVERAGING
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NW FLOW WILL KEEP ANY OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE BUT SOME CLOUDS MAY FLIRT WITH OUTER CAPE AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...MOCLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
MIXING ALGORITHM SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS STILL NEAR 30 KT
THU. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WED NIGHT AND THU
NIGHT.
FRI...GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SO
EXPECT DIMINISHING WIND. BUT STILL COLD AS 850 TEMPS FROM GEFS MEAN
AND EC RUNNING -12 TO -14C.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND AS COASTAL STORM FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG OP
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THIS STORM SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GGEM HAS BIG STORM HERE
SAT AND SAT NIGHT WHILE EC IS A MISS. GFS/UKMET IN BETWEEN AND
SLOWER. WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST STORM TRACK JUST SE
OF BENCHMARK SUN NIGHT SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS SUN/SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT
DRY FOR NOW NW ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING WITH EVEN A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME OF THE
TERMINALS. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR LEVELS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
MANY OF THE TERMINALS...WITH EVEN A BIT STRONGER AT THE ACK TERMINAL.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DESPITE A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY WORK INTO NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 KT
WITH SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...
LEFT OVER SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WILL
RESULT IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS OVER THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WED NIGHT...HIGH PROB OF NW GALES WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40
KT...STRONGEST EASTERN WATERS
THU...GALES STILL LIKELY EASTERN WATERS BUT WIND GUSTS PROBABLY
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE.
FRI...SCA WINDS IN THE MORNING THEN DIMINISHING.
SAT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK
