FXUS63 KMPX 150438
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1038 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.UPDATED...

ADDED 06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 248 PM CST
FIRST ITEM OF THE FORECAST IS HEADLINE FOR WIND
CHILL ADV OVER MN PORTION OF THE CWA. COLD WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING
AROUND MIDNIGHT WEST...SPREADING TO THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY BY
12Z TUE. WILL MENTION ADV FOR MN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING.

LEFTOVER FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN CWA...WILL INCLUDE OVER THE FAR
EAST INTO THE EVENING. SOME INDICATION OF MID CLOUDS COMING BACK
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH SWEEP OVER
NORTHERN MN. MAY DEVELOP A FLURRY AGAIN FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THE ARCTIC CHILL MOVING IN. 
TEENS BELOW LOOK LIKE A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA IF
CLOUDS CLEAR COMPLETELY...COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW COVER. 

SFC RDG MOVING OVER THE CWA INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAVE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE GOOD
DECLINE INTO TUE NIGHT BEFORE TEMPS SLOW THEIR DROP IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA. TRIED TO SHOW SOME TYPE OF NON-DIURNAL TREND THERE
LATE. SOME WARMING/MODERATION ANTICIPATED FOR WED INTO FRIDAY AS
SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA THURSDAY. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMER AIR...BUT MOISTURE LACKING AND MOVES
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. MENTION SLGT CHC POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA THU WITH THIS.  

LONGER TERM INDICATES HUDSON BAY VORTEX RETROGRADES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRAG MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES TO MUCH FOR THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL BRING A TREND BACK
TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

WEAK VORT APRCHG KFAR MVG EAST ARND 30KTS SPRDG BAND CLDS AND SCT
-SN MAINLY ACRS N MN. A BRF PRD OF 5SM -SN PSBL AT AXN TIL ARND
08Z AND PERHAPS AT STC BTWN 07Z AND 10Z. REMAINING TAF SITES WL
HAVE A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR CIGS 3-5K. SEE SPECIFIC TAFS FOR
TIMING. BAND OF BIT STRONGER SFC WNDS ALSO APPEARING IN METARS
ACRS N NODAK INTO NW MN BHD VORT. MAY SEE SOME WINDS IN 10 TO 15
KT RANGE MAINLY AT AXN AND STC DVLPG BFR 12Z. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
     BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
     FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
     KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE 
     LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-
     SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
     WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/BAP