FXUS64 KOHX 291126
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR MID CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY DOWNWARD AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP,
ALTHOUGH AM NOT EXPECTING RAIN AT BNA UNTIL AFTER 00Z, AND CSV
AFTER 06Z. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP BELOW 3,000 FT OVERNIGHT AS
RAIN DEVELOPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF HAS PUSHED A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE MIDSTATE
AS IT PASSED TO THE EAST. NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER
TODAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKEWISE INCREASE ACCORDINGLY...FROM A CHANCE IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR CERTAINTY TONIGHT EVERYWHERE. ONE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THIS. WE ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK SET THE DRIEST NOVEMBER
ON RECORD. THE DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD WAS NOVEMBER 1949 WITH
54 INCHES OF RAIN. CURRENTLY THE GFS IS PREDICTING .67 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SO IT SEEMS UNLIKELY 
THAT THIS RECORD IS IN DANGER OF BEING BROKEN.

RAINFALL TAPERS OFF ON MON WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING EWD INTO THE
AREA BY EARLY TUE AM. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SW WILL BE TRUCKING EWD THROUGH NRN
MEXICO INTO TX. THIS WILL FORM A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE WRN GULF
ON MON WHICH PROCEED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES ON TUE
NGT AND WED. THIS PUSHES RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY WED AND
SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WED AND THEN TAPERS
OFF WED NGT AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE MIDSTATE. THIS MAY
BRING A FEW FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE WED NGT AND EARLY THU AM.

SFC RIDGE BEHIND THIS LOW MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRI WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO CLIMO NORMS BAY SAT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SGFNT WX FOR FRI OR SAT. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON SUN(12/6).

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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