FXUS64 KOHX 282333
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
533 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO REGION FROM THE SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... WHILE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT
THE SFC. HIGH LEVEL... AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL... CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. BELIEVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...THE AFTERNOON WAS UNUSUALLY PLEASANT FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. WE HAD FULL SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS MID TN. ENJOY IT NOW...BECAUSE WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION TO MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER WX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SOUTH WINDS
WERE HELPING BRING THE WARMER AIR INTO MID TN. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WAS NEAR THE GULF COAST...PRODUCING MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO MID TN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WHEN WE
HAD A WIDESPREAD FREEZE.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH
THICKENING CLOUDS AND SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS NORTHWEST
HALF. SUNDAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS.

WE EXPECT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WITH
A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LIFT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH 
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE RAIN
EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH MOST RAIN DONE BY THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA...WILL HAVE ROLLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND BE APPROACHING TN BY WEDNESDAY.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS TN. A
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY...WRAPPING MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A RAIN
EVENT IS EXPECTED...BUT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MEET UP WITH THE
DEPARTING MOISTURE TO YIELD A FEW HARMLESS SNOWFLAKES BY THURSDAY
MORNING NORTH AND PLATEAU.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDINESS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER WX. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD KEEP FLURRIES GOING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY
FOR THE PLATEAU. FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND CHILLY NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

LV/SH