FXUS62 KMHX 301442
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
941 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW FROM
THE GULF STATES. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR
WEST...BUT STILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND STORMY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT ON
THURSDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD AND DRY
PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MON...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MTNS TO THE
W WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES OVER GOOD PART OF ERN NC. WITH SOME GOOD
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN WITH CHC SHRA MAINLY DEEP INLAND AS
FRONT APPROACHES. BEST RAIN CHC WILL BE DURING EVENING WITH
FROPA...WILL CONT LIKELY POPS NE TO CHC S. WITH CLOUDS DECREASING
LATE AND CAA KICKING IN EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPR 30S/LOWER 40S
INLAND TO MID 40S CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 33 AM MON...SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF COOL/DRY AIR MOVING IN WITH STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE TUE NIGHT WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WED WHICH WILL TRACK TO OUR W
AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT FROM A S
STREAM DEEP UPPER LVL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVING OVER
LA/MS WED. THOUGH WEAKENING...THE FEATURE WILL BE RE-ENERGIZED
AS IT PHASES WITH THE N STREAM AMPLIFIED TROF SINKING OUT OF THE
THE N PLAINS. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS THIS LOW MOVES NE
WED AFT-WED NT. THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM DIFFER ON THE TIMING WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH ONSET/ENDING OF RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TIMING
WHICH IS WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST WHICH LEANS MORE
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE NAM SEEMS MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH
POSITION OF LOW SO HAVE DISCOUNTED IT AT THIS TIME.
MOST NOTABLE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG LL JET WITH
SPEEDS 45-55KT JUST OFF THE DECK (2K FT) AND H850 WINDS AROUND
70-85KT (GFS/ECMWF). NORMALLY IN DECEMBER THESE WINDS WOULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MIXING TO THE SFC...HOWEVER WITH STRONG WAA OVER
THE AREA...ESP NEAR THE COAST...MOVING OVER STILL WARM COASTAL
WATERS COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH MIXING FOR STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT
THE REGION. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PULL THESE
STRONGER WINDS (THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EVEN WITHOUT
SHOWERS)...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE. THE INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE MODELS IS
SPLIT...BUT BASED ON W TRACK FEEL THERE WILL BE SOME TSRA
DEVELOPING MAINLY NEAR THE WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE SE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES JUMPING TO AROUND 1.75" (NOTABLE FOR
DECEMBER) EXP POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. THE STRONG WAA WILL
LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS SOCKED IN ALL DAY...WHICH WILL AID IN KEEPING
INSTABILITY LIMITED ESP INLAND. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-09Z. AGAIN SHEAR THE MAIN CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADO EVENT FOR WED/WED NT. STRONG
WINDS COULD ALSO LEAD TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING IN SE FLOW.
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON THU...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STEADY OR
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...THE NOTABLE CAA WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THIS INSTANCE...WITH A DEEP TROF DIPPING INTO THE SE. THE MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE COLD FRONT STALLING JUST OFFSHORE AND A WEAK
COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LVL TROF NEAR THE REGION. THOUGH POSSIBLE FEEL THAT THE STRONG
HIGH WILL WIN OUT AND WE WILL SEE COOL/DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WITH DRY
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION EXP TO SEE A RETURN OF FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT AND DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 905 AM MONDAY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT OVER IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY.
ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. A LOWER OVERCAST DECK AROUND 5 KFT WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING CLOSER TO THE FRONT ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THUNDER NOT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST
LATE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH FLYING CONDITIONS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY AFTER THAT. LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. THE WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY STRONG. A
JET OF 50+ KNOTS A STRONG POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS
WELL. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SCT-BKN STRATOCU DECK WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY WILL BUILD EAST THIS WEEKEND WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 905 AM MONDAY...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. BLENDED LOCAL ARW MODEL SOLUTION...WHICH CAPTURED
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FAIRLY WELL...WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND
DIMINISHED WINDS A BIT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS AND NRN WATERS. INCREASED SW FLOW STILL EXPECTED BY LATER
TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE NC/TN MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO MARINE FCST OR ADVISORIES.
AS OF 330 AM MON...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS STILL OFFERING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. GENERAL
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO LEAN TOWARD THE 29/12Z ECMWF SOLUTION SO WILL
TEND TO FOLLOW IT CLOSELY. THE FIRST SYSTEM...A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT...WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS FROM TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AND MOVE
OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE 2ND SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH STRONGER. LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT WATERS WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT
ELSEWHERE. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND 12Z THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE LOW WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDING EAST.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SJ
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...SJ
LONG TERM...SJ
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
