FXUS65 KLKN 221111
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
311 AM PST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SILVER
STATE THIS MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE. DURING WEDNESDAY A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND IS PUSHING INTO EASTERN NV THIS
MORNING. CYCLOGENESIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY JUMPING OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA'S. DEEP MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT HAS ALREADY PUSHED EAST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...BUT IT SHOULD
SLOW AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO SPIN UP OVER EASTERN UTAH. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE WIDESPREAD SNOW GOING ACROSS EASTERN ELKO/WHITE PINE
COUNTY THROUGH NOON...WITH OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TODAY ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY AND THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STRONG NW FLOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SW UTAH WILL
TIGHTEN THE SURF GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY AND THE LEE SIDE OF
THE RUBIES. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY TONIGHT.

700-500MB MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NV TONIGHT...WITH
SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING UNTIL MIDNIGHT
BEFORE ENDING IN EARNEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK
MID-LEVEL FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE BROAD NW FLOW.
VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. 

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 
SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH NRN AND CNTRL NV 
UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG INVERSIONS OVER THE 
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE SNOW COVERED. WITH THESE STRONG 
INVERSIONS MANY OF THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS OF ERN NV WILL REMAIN 
BELOW FREEZING IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AT 
NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT 
THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM 
MOVING IT INTO NRN CA LATE SAT THEN INTO NRN AND CNTRL NV ON SUNDAY. 
THIS IS A REVERSAL FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN WHICH HAD THE UPPER TROUGH 
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST THEN MOVING INLAND ACROSS SRN CA 
AND AZ. THE 00Z GFS/UKMET STILL SHOW THIS SOLUTION WHICH THE CURRENT 
FCST IS BASED UPON. SINCE THE ECMWF IS THE ODD ONE OUT AND NOT 
SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WILL THROW OUT AND CONTINUE WITH 
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS DRY WX THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SOME ISOLATED 
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK NRN PORTION 
OF THE TROUGH SHEARS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE 
WEEKEND NIGHT TIME TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE 
DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. 

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH 
THE WORST WEATHER ACROSS ERN NV WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER 
CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 18Z WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING 
CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE 
UNTIL 00Z ACROSS FAR ERN NV. STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE 
STRONG NWLY WINDS AT THE KTPH TERMINAL FROM 18Z TO 03Z.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...KELY ASOS IS BROKEN AND AWAITING PARTS. ESTIMATED FIX
TIME IS AT LEAST 24 HOURS. 

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING 
FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO 
COUNTY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR 
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHERN 
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING 
FOR NORTHERN NYE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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