FXUS62 KTBW 160830
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
330 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST TODAY WITH A PIECE
OF THE TROUGH STILL FORECAST TO BE LEFT BEHIND OVER TEXAS TODAY
BEFORE BEING KICKED EAST ACROSS THE GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW...ONLY UP TO ABOUT 900 MB...WITH A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW JUST ABOVE THIS KEEPING A WEAK OVERRUNNING
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
GULF WILL MOVE EAST CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
FRIDAY. THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. DEEP LAYER WIND AND
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT
REMAINS WEAK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SINCE THE STRONG
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. POPS
DECREASE TO 20/30 NORTH/ELSEWHERE RESPECTIVELY FRIDAY LATE IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY LOW END 20 POPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH
SILENT 10 POPS ELSEWHERE.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES AS NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESTABLISH ACROSS THE STATE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. COLDEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY
MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
MORNING...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES
ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY.
$$
AVIATION...MOST OF THE MARINE AND COASTAL FOG IS NOW LIFTING...BUT
WILL CARRY TEMPOS THROUGH 10Z FOR SOME POSSIBLE LAND FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
ALL DAY...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE AND SOUTHERN WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND SHIFT TO EAST AS THE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN UP THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 60 74 64 / 30 20 40 70
FMY 81 64 78 66 / 30 20 50 70
GIF 76 59 74 62 / 30 20 40 70
SRQ 78 61 76 64 / 30 20 40 70
BKV 74 57 72 62 / 30 10 30 70
SPG 74 62 73 65 / 30 20 40 70
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO
60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...22/REYNES
