FXUS63 KABR 260944
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
344 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

WILL SEE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM TO BETWEEN 6 AND
9C TODAY FROM EAST TO WEST RESPECTIVELY...UNDER SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY
WINDS. DESPITE THE ELEVATED WARM AIR AND WESTERLY FLOW...FULL
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING MAY BE INHIBITED SOMEWHAT BY CIRRUS
OVERTOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE AN ANOMALOUSLY
WARM DAY WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE H85/925
LAYER. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SATURDAY...AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE...SO WHILE WE WILL SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WILL NOT SEE PRECIPITATION AS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE
LIMITED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL FLOW SITUATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
USUALLY MEANS A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS SINCE
ADVANCING SYSTEMS HAVE LITTLE TO NO CHANCE IN ADVECTING IN DECENT
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. SO...THE MOSTLY DRY FORECAST THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE LOOKS FINE FOR NOW. LATE IN THE PERIOD IS WHERE
DIFFERENCES BEGIN POPPING UP. THE ECMWF LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WEST OF WHERE THE GFS SOLUTION SETTLES
OUT. THIS PLAYS OUT PARTICULARLY SO IN HOW FAR WEST OR EAST THE
BRUNT OF A COLD INTRUSION AFFECTS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO
MODEL IS THE FARTHEST WEST. MANY GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORT THE MORE
WESTERN SOLUTION...SO THAT MODEL MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING. CERTAINLY
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A ROLLER COASTER WITH RATHER
MILD TEMPS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND CHILLY BEHIND...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MID TO LATE
WEEK. OVERALL RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO POP/TEMP/WX
GRIDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTER THE LOWER CLOUDS BREAK UP THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS. 

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN