FXUS65 KGJT 301330
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
630 AM MST MON NOV 30 2009

.UPDATE...REPORTS FROM PAGOSA SPRINGS...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS...AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARY SHOWING FOG DISPERSING.  KEPT PATCHY FOG
IN MORNING FORECAST AND CANCELLED DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 306 AM MST MON NOV 30 2009/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ORIENTED FROM W-E OVER THE GRT BASIN...
SQUEEZED BETWEEN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER MEXICO AND ACTIVE WESTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE NRN TIER STATES. WX WISE EXPECT SUNNY MILD
CONDITIONS TODAY.

A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND NRN SASKATCHEWAN
UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT...THEN INTO
WYOMING TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING TIGHTENING SFC P GRADS FOR AN
INCREASE IN WIND...MOST NOTABLE OVER THE NORTH. ALSO A CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE PARK/GORE AND FLATTOPS BY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND STABILITY DECREASES.

THIS SYSTEM DROPS SWRD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IN
THE PROCESS CLIPS OUR NRN ZONES. MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BUT QG
FORCING ACCOMPANIED BY NOSE OF 90KT JET SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED
MTN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALONG THE DIVIDE NEAR I-70.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MANAGE TO MAKE IT
THROUGH ALL BUT THE EXTREME SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE N OF WI/MI WILL DRAPE A TROF SWRD REACHING AS FAR AS
ERN CO.  ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO DROP AS TROF MOVES THRU OUR AREA WITH
LGT PRECIP OVR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE
DRY GIVEN CONTINENTAL AIRMASS AND AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...PRECIP AMTS
ON THE LOW SIDE...ORDER OF A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.  MODELS HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THIS OVER LAST FEW MODEL RUNS SO ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE VERY LGT IN NATURE.  ACCORDINGLY...LOWERED POPS SOME
BUT KEPT PRECIP OVER EXTREME ERN AND NERN ZONES THRU THURSDAY AFTN.

QUICK MOVING RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU THUR NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT GIVING
MOSTLY SUNNY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR ENTIRE CWA THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
MORE SEASONABLE...MID 40S FOR THE VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MTNS.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE EXPERIENCED ON THUR AS
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA THOUGH MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN SOMEWHAT.  BIT THE BULLET AND TOOK OUT ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT ALONG CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND UINTAS.
AGAIN...CONTINENTAL SYSTEM SO MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
NOT MUCH ASSOCD PRECIP.  BY SATURDAY BOTH ECMWF AND GFS PAINT PRECIP
ALMOST OVR THE EXACT SAME SPOTS AS PREVIOUS STORM.  MADE NO CHANGES
TO CURRENT FORECAST AS PREVIOUS RUNS PAINTED A MUCH BLEAKER
PICTURE...OR GOOD PICTURE FOR THOSE WANTING SNOW...SO KEPT CHC TO
SCHC PRECIP OVER MAINLY NRN MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF CWA ASIDE FROM AREAS TO OUR S INCLUDING
PAGOSA SPRINGS...DURANGO...CORTEZ WHERE REPORTS INDICATE FOG
DROPPING VIS TO 1/4 MILE.  AS FAR AS TAF SITES ARE CONCERNED
HOWEVER...VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE.......TGR
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM....TGR
AVIATION.....TGR