FXUS64 KOUN 142329
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
529 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
DRY CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD BKN TO OVC CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN TWELVE AND TWENTY THOUSAND FEET. VERY COOL AIR OVER
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA COULD YIELD A BRIEF DECK OF LOW STRATUS...BUT
WITH VERY LITTLE LIFT OCCURRING...WE WILL LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER WINDS WILL DIMINISH...
OR IF COLD ADVECTION CAN MAINTAIN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT WINDS THAT
WERE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. WE LEANED TOWARD AN EARLIER DECLINE
IN WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO MOS GUIDANCE...AS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
WANE AFTER 06 UTC.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A SLOWLY MOVING WAVE IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRAZE OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY THICK CLOUDS INTO THOSE AREAS TONIGHT...
LINGERING INTO MID-WEEK. VIRGA IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT A
RATHER THICK LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. CANNOT RULE
OUT A TINY BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW MORNING... BUT THE PROBABILITIES ARE EXTREMELY LOW.
THE ECMWF REMAINS THE PREFERRED MODEL THIS TIME AROUND... AND IT
STILL MAINTAINS A COOL WEEK... FOLLOWED BY A COLD WEEKEND. HAVE
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FEW CHANGES THAT HAVE COME UP IN THE LATER
PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECASTS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FORECAST SOME RATHER UGLY WINTER-
WEATHER SCENARIOS FOR NEXT WEEK -- BEYOND OUR DAY 7. THEIR TIMING
IS NATURALLY VERY DIFFERENT... BUT BOTH FORECAST SOME TYPE OF
SIGNIFICANT FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OR
END OF NEXT WEEK. THAT IS STILL A WAYS OFF... SO MUCH CAN CHANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 22 36 25 47 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 21 41 26 48 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 27 45 26 51 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 15 35 19 51 / 10 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 11 32 17 45 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 27 44 28 50 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/22/22
