FXUS62 KTAE 231425
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
925 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SYNOPTIC FEATURES THIS MORNING INCLUDE HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERED IN SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO JUST OFF 
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AN ABNORMAL LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. BACK IN THE 
U.S...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS IN FULL SWING FROM OUR 
AREA WESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. UPSLOPE IS 
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF THE 
ROCKIES FROM COLORADO TO MONTANA. ALOFT...OUR FUTURE WEATHER MAKER 
IS CENTERED IN NEW MEXICO WITH A SECOND PULSE IN ALBERTA CANADA 
READY TO DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK PULSE IS PUSHING 
THROUGH THE ARKANSAS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS PRODUCING RAIN 
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS STRETCH FROM 
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTH TO 
MONTANA...AND FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. 
ALSO...WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE ALSO UP IN MAINE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE SPC HAS NOW PLACED 
US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2.

CLOSER TO HOME...AT 14Z TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 40S...EVEN NEAR 50 AT 
THE COAST...DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY AROUND 40. WINDS WERE WEAK 
EASTERLY...EAST SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE. CIRRUS COVERS MUCH OF THE 
AREA WITH A PATCH OF THICKER CIRRUS COVERING THE BIG BEND.

&&

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. NOT EXPECTING 
TO MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT UPDATES...EXCEPT WILL MONITOR OFFSHORE 
WINDS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SCA EARLIER THAN TONIGHT AT 1AM.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG...MAINLY OVER 
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WILL LIFT AND 
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA...GRADUALLY THICKENING DURING THE 
DAY...AND LOWERING TO AROUND 10000 FEET AFTER 00Z MOST AREAS. EXPECT 
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AHEAD 
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS THIS MORNING AT THE BUOYS ARE MEETING EXERCISE 
CAUTION CRITERIA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN OVER THE MARINE 
AREA TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS 
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE 
DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. CONTEMPLATING UPGRADING TO SCA STARTING 
AT 00Z TONIGHT. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS 
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AND NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS 
ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON 
FRIDAY.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL  
     OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL    
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM  
     20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO  
     60 NM FROM 1 AM EST THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY. 

&&

$$

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DUVAL
REST OF DISCUSSION...WATSON